Iowa Governor 2026

Iowa elects a governor on November 3 for an open seat: Republican Kim Reynolds is not running. Kalshi prices Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor, at 87.5% against Republican businessman Zach Lahn at 13.5%. Polymarket has Sand at 85.5%, and Manifold's party board has Democrats at 85.5%.

The flow runs against the price on both exchanges. Kalshi's board turned $49,169 in a day and $30,190 of it traded on Lahn; $546,359 of its $853,864 of open interest sits on his leg. Polymarket's turned $15,923, $13,409 of it on Lahn.

The margin book is tighter than the winner books. Kalshi's ladder prices Sand, 6+ pts at 57.5% and 9+ pts at 39.5%, a midpoint of about seven points.

The ticket is the open question. Iowa's Senate race is close to even, Ashley Hinson 54.5% to Josh Turek's 45.5%, and the combo book splits between a Democratic sweep at 47.5% and Sand with Hinson at 41.5%.

Sand to win is 87.5% on Kalshi and 85.5% on Polymarket, two points apart. His Kalshi leg took $18,981 today.

Below them, the other side of the Kalshi board: Lahn at 13.5% took $30,190, more than Sand's leg, and holds $546,359 of open interest. Beside it, Manifold's party board, which is play money, has Democrats at 85.5%.

Kalshi's ladder on Sand's margin (left) prices Sand, 3+ pts at 72.5%, 6+ pts at 57.5%, the rung nearest even and the busiest at $1,362, 9+ pts at 39.5% and 12+ pts at 22%. The Lahn ladder (right) prices a Republican win by three points or more at 7.35%, about half of his 13.5% chance of winning at all. Read together, the books put the midpoint at a Sand win of about seven points and price a Lahn win, if it comes, as narrow.

Iowa votes for governor and senator on the same ballot. Kalshi's combo book (left) prices Rob Sand and Josh Turek both winning at 47.5%, Rob Sand and Ashley Hinson at 41.5%, the leg that took $1,001 of the book's $1,310, and Zach Lahn and Ashley Hinson at 14%. Polymarket's version (right) has a Democratic sweep at 43.5% and a Democratic governor with a Republican senator at 40.5%, on $176. Both books treat Sand as the common factor and the Senate seat as the coin flip.

Below, Kalshi's Senate board itself: Hinson 54.5%, Turek 45.5%, on $98,207, twice the governor board's volume. See also Iowa Senate 2026.

• Voter Ready: a guide to voting in Iowa — The Iowa Secretary of State's voter guide, with registration and absentee deadlines and Election Day hours for November 3.
• Iowa gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 — Ballotpedia's page on the race: candidates, race ratings and past results.
• 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election — Wikipedia's page on the race, with the nominees, running mates and public polling.

• The Lahn leg. $30,190 of Kalshi's $49,169 and $13,409 of Polymarket's $15,923 traded on a candidate priced at 13.5% to 14.5%, and most of Kalshi's open interest sits there. Watch whether the price follows the money.
• The margin, not only the winner. Sand, 6+ pts at 57.5% is the live rung on Kalshi's ladder; 9+ pts is 39.5%.
• The split ticket. Sand with Hinson is 41.5% on Kalshi and 40.5% on Polymarket: the market gives four in ten to a Democratic governor and a Republican senator.
• Two points between the exchanges. Kalshi is 87.5% and Polymarket 85.5% on Sand, a wider gap than on most governor's races this close to the vote.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles on the November 3 result; Kalshi's runs to certification and is expected to settle by January 14, 2027.