2026 House Control

Kalshi's House control board prices Democrats at 90% and turned $1,522,457 in a day; the Republican leg at 9.95% took $1,007,624, twice the $501,037 on the Democratic leg.

The combo books lean on the long shots too. Kalshi's Congress combo turned $787,530, with $432,386 on Republicans sweep at 10.5% and $265,596 on R-House, D-Senate at 0.75%. Polymarket's balance-of-power book turned $442,616, a third of Thursday's, with $150,357 on a split Congress with a Republican Senate at 28.5%. A Democratic sweep is 60.5% on Kalshi and 62.5% on Polymarket, each down a point.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Kalshi's two-party House board beside Polymarket's balance-of-power book, then Kalshi's Congress combo. Kalshi's combo turned $787,530; Polymarket's turned $442,616. Two contract structures, two points apart on a Democratic sweep: 60.5% and 62.5%.

Democrats at 90.05%, Republicans at 9.95%. The busier leg is the cheap one again: $1,007,624 on Republicans against $501,037 on Democrats, and the price barely moved.

The pattern repeats on Kalshi's combo, where Republicans sweep at 10.5% took $432,386, ten times the 60.5% Democratic sweep's $42,993. Polymarket spread its money more evenly: $150,357 on R Senate, D House, $134,529 on D Senate, R House at 0.9%, $79,981 on the Democratic sweep and $70,168 on the Republican sweep at 8.5%.

TX-15 has held its move. Bobby Pulido (D) leads at 81.5% against Monica De La Cruz (R) at 17.5%. The book turned $16,402, and this time nearly all of it, $16,054, went to Pulido. MN-01 has Brad Finstad (R) at 77.5% over Jake Johnson (D) at 22.5%, on $83.

Kalshi's seat-count boards turn the control question into a margin. The Republican board's single most likely bucket is below 193 at 30.5%, with 198–202 at 17.5%, 203–207 at 15.5% and 193–197 at 14.5%, on $44,910 today. The Democratic board leads with 230–233 at 16.5%, ahead of 234–237 at 14.5% and 238–241 and above 249 at 12.5% each, on $54,167, $18,977 of it on above 249.

• The cheap legs taking most of the money. On Kalshi's House board and its combo a Republican outcome is the busiest leg at about a one-in-ten price: $1,007,624 on the House leg and $432,386 on the Republican sweep. Someone is either buying a long shot in size or selling it to the crowd; either way, it is the flow to watch into November.
• Polymarket's book quieted. $442,616, down from $1,334,875, with the most on a split Congress with a Republican Senate.
• A Democratic sweep at 60.5% and 62.5%, each a point lower than Thursday.
• TX-15 at 81.5%. Pulido holds, and the day's money followed him.
• The seat count. Below 193 at 30.5% is a wave scenario, and it is the modal bucket on the Republican board; the Democratic board's mode is a narrower 230–233.
• The Senate decides the combo. Senate control is where the split-Congress leg is won or lost.