2026 House Control

Kalshi's House control board prices Democrats at 91.8% and turned $492,980 in a day—and $270,637 of it, 55%, went to the Republican leg at 9.1%. The same book carries $22.0M of open interest, the Republican side holding $13.8M of it.

Both balance-of-power books agree on the shape. A Democratic sweep is 61% on Kalshi and on Polymarket, a split Congress with a Republican Senate 30% and 31%, and a Republican sweep 9.4% and 8%. And on both venues the Republican sweep is where the day's money went.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Kalshi's two-party House board beside Polymarket's balance-of-power book, then Kalshi's Congress combo. Kalshi's combo turned $451,391 on $11.3M of open interest; Polymarket's turned $101,317 on $12.7M. Two contract structures, the same 61% on a Democratic sweep to the point.

Democrats at 91.8%, Republicans at 9.1%. The busier leg is the cheap one: $270,637 on Republicans against $221,854 on Democrats.

The pattern repeats on the combo books. Kalshi's Republicans sweep at 9.4% took $217,216, nearly twice the 61% Democratic sweep; Polymarket's took $64,586, more than every other leg on its board combined.

TX-15 has reversed. Bobby Pulido (D) now leads at 68% against Monica De La Cruz (R) at 32%—the reverse of where this page last priced it, when the Republican led 55/45. The book still carries $1.68M of open interest but turned only $199 today. MN-01 has Brad Finstad (R) at 77% over Jake Johnson (D) at 25%.

Kalshi's seat-count boards turn the control question into a margin. The Republican board's single most likely bucket is below 193 at 29%, with 193–197 at 14% and 198–202 at 17%, on $2.17M of open interest. The Democratic board spreads wider, with above 249 at 13% its largest standing position at 281,547 contracts.

• The 9% leg taking most of the money. On all three control books the Republican outcome is the busiest leg by dollars at single-digit prices. Someone is either buying a long shot in size or selling it to the crowd; either way, it is the flow to watch into November.
• 61% twice. Kalshi and Polymarket agree on a Democratic sweep to the point. When that spread opens, one side is catching up.
• TX-15's reversal on no volume. A 23-point swing with $199 traded today means the move happened earlier and the book has since gone quiet.
• The seat count. Below 193 at 29% is a wave scenario, and it is the modal bucket.
• The Senate decides the combo. Senate control is where the 30% split-Congress leg is won or lost.