Hantavirus Pandemic 2026

Hantavirus risk is pinned near the floor. Polymarket's headline Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? trades at 1.05% on $416 of 24-hour volume, down from 1.9% a week earlier. Kalshi's WHO Public Health Emergency of International Concern Single is 1.3%, down from 2%, on $128.

The generic lines fell less. Polymarket prices a generic new pandemic in 2026 at 1.6% and Kalshi at 2%, so each venue's hantavirus line now sits clearly below its generic one: the books treat the MV Hondius cluster as over. WHO reported that the last traced contact completed quarantine on July 2.

With under two months left in the year, every line here is decaying toward its year-end settlement. This workspace keeps the headline Singles side by side, the origin question that is still open, and the broader 2026 pandemic-risk books that give the hantavirus number its context.

Polymarket's Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? at 1.05% paired with Kalshi's WHO PHEIC for hantavirus Single at 1.3%. Same story, two settlement primitives, pandemic definition against PHEIC declaration. A PHEIC is a lower bar than a pandemic, and it is declared by a committee rather than triggered by case counts; Kalshi's line sits a quarter point above Polymarket's, against a tenth of a point a week earlier. Kalshi's line holds $403,227 of open interest, but neither headline book turned more than $416 in the latest 24 hours.

The June 30 Polymarket outbreak and lab-leak checkpoints both settled No and have been retired. What remains of the forensic question lives on Manifold: whether the MV Hondius outbreak is traced to rats aboard the ship itself, still 8.22% with no volume in the latest 24 hours. Polymarket has not listed a replacement dated checkpoint, so this row runs half width by design rather than carrying a settled book.

Year-level pandemic questions without the hantavirus narrowing. Kalshi's Pandemic in 2026? prices 2%, down from 2.5%, and Polymarket's New pandemic in 2026? 1.6%, down from 1.95%. Polymarket's is now the busiest book on the page at $6,552 in 24 hours; Kalshi's turned $893. Both sit above their venue's hantavirus line, so none of the pandemic pricing is attributable to this pathogen.

Manifold's mirror of the Polymarket pandemic Single reads 1.36% against Polymarket's 1.05%: the play-money book now prices the same question about three-tenths of a point higher, after sitting below it a week earlier. The hantavirus-vaccine Single at 3.2%, unchanged, is the asymmetric tail; it reprices on regulatory news rather than case counts and had no volume in the latest 24 hours.

• Hantavirus now trails generic pandemic risk. 1.05% against 1.6% on Polymarket, 1.3% against 2% on Kalshi. A move of the hantavirus line back above the generic one would be the first sign of renewed concern.
• The cross-exchange gap on the headline is small. Kalshi's WHO-declaration line sits a quarter point above Polymarket's pandemic line.
• Time decay. Every book here settles at year end. With under two months left and no new cluster, the lines drift down on their own.
• Manifold now reads above Polymarket. The play-money mirror at 1.36% against 1.05%. Gaps on thin books usually reflect stale quotes rather than a view.
• The MV Hondius origin question is still open on Manifold at 8.22%.
• Volume. Polymarket's generic pandemic line turned $6,552 and its hantavirus headline $416, against $31,000 a day on the headline in September. A price move on a few hundred dollars is noise.