Global Temperature Markets 2026

Nine daily temperature boards across two exchanges, and the venues price different days. Kalshi's Los Angeles and Miami books price the November 13 high and are listed to settle Saturday, November 14 at 3pm ET. Polymarket's city boards price Saturday, November 14, and are listed to settle at 7am ET that day.

Kalshi's Los Angeles book leans to 70° to 71° at 56.5% on $20,312. Polymarket's November 14 Los Angeles board has the same band on top for the next day: 70-71°F at 58% against 72-73°F at 24.5%, on $4,697.

In Asia, Shanghai's 19°C leads at 55%, the busiest board on $11,135, then Seoul's 13°C at 53.5%, Tokyo's 19°C at 50% and Busan's 15°C at 42%. Hong Kong's 26°C at 40.5% against 27°C at 38%, and Beijing's 14°C at 35.5% against 15°C at 33%, are the most divided.

Left is Kalshi's book on the November 13 Los Angeles high, listed to settle at 3pm ET November 14, with 70° to 71° at 56.5%, 68° to 69° 30.5%, 72° to 73° 9.5% and 67° or below 5.5%, on $20,312; 68° to 69° drew the most money, $5,361. Right is Polymarket's board for the November 14 high, listed to settle at 7am ET November 14, led by 70-71°F at 58% with 72-73°F at 24.5% and 68-69°F at 16%, on $4,697; 70-71°F took the most, $1,586. The venues cut their bands differently and price different days, so the matching leaders are two separate days, not one forecast priced twice.

Left is Kalshi's 70° to 71° for November 13 at 56.5%, the book's leading band, on $2,877 in the past day, with $2,281 open. Right is Polymarket's 68-69°F for November 14 at 16%, on $1,086; it is no longer its board's leader, which is 70-71°F at 58%.

Hong Kong, on $9,452, leans to 26°C at 40.5%, with 27°C close behind at 38%, 25°C at 12% and 28°C at 8%; 26°C took the most money, $2,907. Busan, on $2,454, leans to 15°C at 42% against 16°C at 39%, with 17°C at 10% and 14°C at 9.2%; 15°C took the most money, $619.

Tokyo, on $4,352, has 19°C at 50%, with 18°C at 31%, 20°C at 13.7% and 17°C at 5%; 20°C took the most money, $2,158. Seoul, on $5,130, leans to 13°C at 53.5%, with 14°C at 36.3% and 12°C at 7%; 13°C took the most money, $1,451.

Shanghai, on $11,135, the busiest Polymarket board here, leans to 19°C at 55% ahead of 18°C at 26%, with 20°C at 13.5% and 17°C at 3.7%; 18°C took the most money, $2,870. Beijing, on $2,885, leans to 14°C at 35.5% against 15°C at 33%, with 13°C at 17.5% and 16°C at 9.9%; 15°C drew the most, $1,236. Below, Kalshi's Miami book has rolled to the November 13 high, listed to settle at 3pm ET Saturday, November 14, on $18,531: 80° to 81° leads at 42.5%, with 82° to 83° at 34.5% and the most money, $5,330, and 78° to 79° at 15.5%.

Polymarket's city boards for the November 14 high are listed to settle at 7am ET Saturday, November 14, and Kalshi's Los Angeles and Miami books for the November 13 high at 3pm ET the same day.

• Los Angeles: Kalshi's November 13 book has 70° to 71° at 56.5% over 68° to 69° at 30.5%; Polymarket's November 14 board has 70-71°F at 58% over 72-73°F at 24.5%.
• Miami: Kalshi's November 13 book has 80° to 81° at 42.5% over 82° to 83° at 34.5%.
• Beijing and Hong Kong: 14°C at 35.5% against 15°C at 33%, and 26°C at 40.5% against 27°C at 38%, the closest races on the page.
• Shanghai: 19°C at 55%, the busiest Asian board.
• Seoul and Tokyo: 13°C at 53.5% and 19°C at 50%.
• Busan: 15°C at 42% against 16°C at 39%.
• The rolls: the next day's boards take each settled book's place.