2027 French Presidential Election

France votes in April and May 2027. Marine Le Pen leads at 44.55% on Polymarket and 45.5% on Kalshi: Polymarket is close to the 43.85% of the last review, while Kalshi has come back from 49.5%. David Lisnard is now second on both, at 15.05% and 16.5%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12.5% and 13.5%. Édouard Philippe, second last time at 16.5% and 15.5%, has dropped to 10.5% and 8.65%, fourth on both.

The venues now agree on the favorite. The cross-exchange gap on Le Pen has closed from 5.65 points to under one. Fifth place is Christine Lagarde on both, at 7.2% and 5.5%.

Polymarket's lead in the trading has widened again. Its outright turned $749,677 in twenty-four hours on $4.46M of open interest; Kalshi's turned $59,883 on $938,211, about twelve to one, up from three to one.

Le Pen and Lagarde took the most money. On Polymarket, Le Pen took $94,151 and Lagarde $92,292, then Lisnard $61,538 and Mélenchon $47,756. On Kalshi, Mélenchon's leg took $12,430 and Le Pen's $12,136; Philippe's took nothing.

The outright winner book on each venue, Polymarket on the left and Kalshi on the right. The pies agree on the order of the top five: Le Pen, Lisnard, Mélenchon, Philippe and Lagarde. Polymarket's is the deeper book at $749,677 a day; Kalshi's, at $59,883, trades about a twelfth as much.

Le Pen's leg on each venue. 44.55% on Polymarket, 45.5% on Kalshi: a 0.95-point gap, down from 5.65 points at the last review, after Kalshi came back from near even money. The Polymarket side carries the volume: $94,151 against $12,136.

Two books that price the first round rather than the result. Because each candidate is priced independently and two people advance, each board should total roughly 200%.

Both are thin: Kalshi's advance book turned $378 in twenty-four hours on $13,427 of open interest, and Manifold's is play money. Kalshi puts Le Pen at 82.5% to advance against 45.5% to win, an implied runoff win rate of about 55%, down from about 60%; Manifold has her at 86% to advance. Mélenchon is now second on both, at 44.5% and 49%, ahead of Philippe at 29.5% and 26%. Lisnard, second on the winner books, is not in Kalshi's top five here and is 13.19% on Manifold.

The ballot-access Multiple asks whether each named candidate actually appears on the ballot: Mélenchon 97%, Le Pen 90.5%, down from 96.5%, Nathalie Arthaud 89%, Philippe 84.5% and Raphaël Glucksmann 79%. Each leg is its own yes/no question, so read it one row at a time rather than as a distribution. Le Pen's 2025 embezzlement conviction carried an ineligibility penalty; this market now puts 90.5% on her name being on the ballot. The board turned only $178 in twenty-four hours, none of it on these five legs, so these are standing quotes.

Two Polymarket legs. Ségolène Royal at 0.1% is trading again, $15,859 in twenty-four hours on a long shot that sat untraded at the last review. Philippe at 10.5%, from 16.5%, is now fourth on Polymarket rather than second, on $23,707.

• Le Pen at 44.55% and 45.5%. The venues have converged on her; she is 82.5% to advance on Kalshi and 90.5% to be on the ballot, down from 96.5%.
• Lisnard second, Philippe fourth. Lisnard is 15.05% and 16.5%; Philippe is down to 10.5% and 8.65%, with no Kalshi flow on his leg.
• Mélenchon for the second runoff place. 44.5% on Kalshi's advance book and 49% on Manifold, ahead of Philippe on both.
• Lagarde's money. 7.2% on Polymarket but $92,292 in a day, almost as much as Le Pen's $94,151.
• Polymarket's lead is back. $749,677 a day against Kalshi's $59,883, about twelve to one.
• The advance and ballot books are thin. $378 and $178 in twenty-four hours. Treat them as a ranking of who is plausible.