2027 French Presidential Election

France votes in April and May 2027. Marine Le Pen now leads at 44% on Polymarket and 46.5% on Kalshi, up from 32.9% and 37% three weeks ago. Édouard Philippe has slipped from 25% on both to 19.5% and 21.5%, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon is 12.5% and 11.5%.

The venues agree on the order of the top five: Le Pen, Philippe, Mélenchon, David Lisnard, François Hollande. Kalshi prices each of them except Mélenchon between one and three points higher than Polymarket.

The trading is almost all on one exchange. Polymarket's outright turned $652,564 in the last twenty-four hours on $1.99M of open interest; Kalshi's turned $6,610, a ratio of about a hundred to one. Three weeks ago Kalshi's day was $182.

The flow has moved toward the names with real prices. Among the leaders, David Lisnard at 7.8% took the most, $80,959, ahead of Le Pen at $62,313 and Hollande at $39,125. Ségolène Royal, who took 41% of the book in September at one-tenth of one percent, took $18,847 today.

The outright winner book on each venue, Polymarket first. The pies now agree on the order of the top five; read Polymarket's as the price and Kalshi's as a thinly traded check on it.

Le Pen's leg on each venue. 44% on Polymarket, 46.5% on Kalshi—a two-and-a-half-point cross-exchange gap on the favorite, and eleven and nine and a half points higher than three weeks ago. The Polymarket side carries the volume: $62,313 against $1,457.

Two books that price the first round rather than the result. Because each candidate is priced independently and two people advance, each column should total roughly 200%.

Both are barely traded: Kalshi's advance book turned $52 and Manifold's is play money. Kalshi puts Le Pen at 82% to advance against 46.5% to win, an implied runoff win rate of about 57%; Manifold has her at 88% to advance. Philippe is 40.5% to advance on both, and Mélenchon 37.5% and 42%.

Two books that price whether the field forms as expected.

The ballot-access Multiple asks whether each named candidate actually appears on the ballot: Mélenchon 97%, Le Pen 95.5%, Nathalie Arthaud 90%, Philippe 89.5%, Éric Zemmour 88.5%. Each leg is its own yes/no question, so read it one row at a time rather than as a distribution. Le Pen's 2025 embezzlement conviction carried an ineligibility penalty; this market now puts 95.5% on her name being on the ballot, up from 86% three weeks ago. The board turned $200.

The socialist bloc primary has Raphaël Glucksmann at 76.5%, up from 38%, with Olivier Faure at 16.5%, and has traded $30.

Two Polymarket legs. Ségolène Royal at 0.2% took $18,847 today; in September the same leg took $321,649, 41% of the book. Philippe at 19.5%, second on both venues, took $25,388.

• Le Pen at 44% and 46.5%. Up about ten points on both venues in three weeks, and 95.5% to be on the ballot. The ballot book was the tail that mattered in September; it has mostly closed.
• Philippe has given up the ground. From 25% on both venues to 19.5% and 21.5%, while staying 40.5% to reach the runoff on both Kalshi and Manifold.
• Weight the Polymarket side. $652,564 a day against $6,610. Kalshi is no longer a $182 book, but where the two disagree Polymarket is the price.
• Lisnard's $80,959 at 7.8%. The busiest of the leading legs, on the fourth-priced name.
• Glucksmann at 76.5% in the socialist bloc primary, on a book that traded $30. Treat it as a ranking, not a probability.
• The advance books are untraded. Kalshi's turned $52. Treat them as a ranking of who is plausible.