FOMC Tracker

The Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of this cycle. The October 28 decision is in and the October books have settled, so this page now leads with the December 9 meeting.

Kalshi prices a December hike at 76.5%. Hike 25bps is 76.5% and Fed maintains rate 22.5%, on $46,966 of 24-hour volume and $3,037,823 of open interest. Polymarket's December book has 25 bps increase at 76.5% and No change at 22.5%, on $93,233 of the day; Manifold's December question has Increase at 74.54%.

The year-end books say the same thing. Polymarket's year-end rate board puts 4.25% at 74.5%, one more 25bp hike from the current range, against 22.5% for staying at 4.0%.

All three exchanges show the December 9 decision: Hike 25bps at 76.5% on Kalshi, 25 bps increase at 76.5% on Polymarket and Increase at 74.54% on Manifold, within two points. Polymarket's book is the busiest at $93,233 in the past day against Kalshi's $46,966; Manifold's legs have not traded in the past day, so it is shown for completeness rather than price discovery.

Hike and hold take 99% of Kalshi's December distribution, 76.5% and 22.5%. The tails are cheap but not empty: Hike >25bps at 1.5% holds $823,963 of open interest, and Cut 25bps at 2% holds $535,535. The hike leg traded far more than the hold leg, $29,588 against $7,275, and carries the largest open position, $836,052. On Polymarket's December book, No change was the busiest leg at $32,585, while $22,593 went through a 25bp decrease at 0.65% and $21,188 through 50+ bps decrease at 0.55%.

Kalshi's Number of rate cuts in 2026 has Exactly 0 cuts at 97.15%, and Polymarket's version has zero at 98.35%. Polymarket's year-end rate distribution sits on 4.25% at 74.5%, with 4.0% at 22.5% and ≥ 4.5% at 1.5%: the median path is one more hike by December, and the bet on two is under 2%. Manifold's net-cuts question puts 96.28% on Other, because none of its listed outcomes allows for a hike.

December 9 is the next hard print, and Kalshi's book settles at 2:05 pm ET that day. With a hike at 76.5%, the meeting is priced as the cycle's second move; the 22.5% hold leg is the surprise the book is carrying, up from 19.5% at the last review.

Watch the hold leg. It has gained three points on both Kalshi and Polymarket, where No change was the busiest December leg in the past day. If it keeps climbing, the market is hearing that the cycle may pause; Polymarket's year-end book, with 4.25% at 74.5%, has moved with it.

Watch the spread between exchanges. 76.5% on Kalshi and Polymarket and 74.54% on Manifold is close, but Manifold has not traded in the past day, so its quote is as much stale as a view.