FOMC Tracker

The Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of this cycle, and the target range is 3.75–4.00%. Three weeks ago the October 28 meeting was split down the middle, hold 55% against another hike at 45%.

Both exchanges now price a hold at 82.5%. Kalshi has Fed maintains rate at 82.5% and Hike 25bps at 16.5% on $154,014 of 24-hour volume; Polymarket has exactly the same two prices on $704,108. Kalshi's cumulative ladder puts Above 4.00% after October at 18%, the same question quoted as a rate, down from 48%.

December is where the hike went. Hike 25bps at the December 9 meeting trades at 70.5% on Kalshi against 26.5% for hold. The base case is not that the Fed is finished; it is that the Fed skips a meeting.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold all list the October decision. The two real books agree exactly, 82.5% for a hold and 16.5% for a hike; Manifold, on a few hundred dollars of volume, has no change at 85% and is shown for completeness rather than price discovery.

Hold and a 25bp hike take 99% of the October distribution between them on both venues. Everything else is priced at a cent or less, and that is where much of Polymarket's volume goes: $262,697 of its $704,108 day traded on a 25bp cut at 0.35% and $159,005 on a larger cut at 0.15%.

Kalshi's Number of rate cuts in 2026 has Exactly 0 cuts at 95.6%, and Polymarket's version has zero at 95.7%. Polymarket's year-end rate distribution has tightened onto 4.25% at 67.9%, up from 46%, with 4.0% at 17.2% and ≥ 4.5% down from 23% to 9.55%: the median path is one more hike by December, and the minority positioned for two has more than halved.

The October 28 statement is the next hard print. The cumulative ladder above is the cheapest way to read it: Above 4.00% at 18% asks the hike question as a rate, and it took $17,774 of that book's $23,497 day.

Watch December rather than October for the regime question. A hold on October 28 that leaves December at 70.5% means the market read a skip. A hold that drags December down with it means the market read a stop.

Watch the spread between venues on the hold leg. Kalshi and Polymarket are level today at 82.5%. Through September 16 that gap stayed inside two points all the way into the announcement, which is what a well-arbitraged book looks like under pressure.