FOMC Tracker

The Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of this cycle, and the board had it right. Kalshi's September book went into the announcement with Hike 25bps at 88% against 12% for hold; Polymarket had 89%. Nine days earlier the two legs were level pegging. The post-meeting ladder puts the target range at 3.75–4.00%.

October 28 is the harder question and the book is split down the middle. Kalshi prices Fed maintains rate at 55% and another 25bp at 45% on $618,683 of 24-hour volume; Polymarket has 54% and 45% on $3,043,731. Kalshi's cumulative ladder puts Above 4.00% after October at 48%—the same question quoted as a rate rather than a decision.

December is where the market stops hedging. Hike 25bps at the December 9 meeting trades at 69% against 30% for hold. The base case is not that the Fed is finished; it is that the Fed may skip a meeting.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold all list the October decision. The two real books agree within a point on both legs; Manifold, on a few hundred dollars of volume, is shown for completeness rather than price discovery.

Hold and a 25bp hike take 99% of the October distribution between them on both venues. Everything else—a 50bp move in either direction, any cut—is priced under two cents, and that is where the tail money sits.

Kalshi's Number of rate cuts in 2026 has Exactly 0 cuts at 95%, which is now a statement about the past as much as the future. Polymarket's year-end rate distribution centres on 4.25% at 46%, with ≥ 4.5% at 23% and 4.0% at 17%—so the median path is one more hike by December, and a meaningful minority is positioned for two.

The October 28 statement is the next hard print. The cumulative ladder above is the cheapest way to read it: Above 4.00% at 48% asks the hike question as a rate, and it will move before the decision book does.

Watch December rather than October for the regime question. A hold on October 28 that leaves December at 69% means the market read a skip. A hold that drags December down with it means the market read a stop.

Watch the spread between venues on the hold leg. Kalshi and Polymarket are a point apart today. Through September 16 that gap stayed inside two points all the way into the announcement, which is what a well-arbitraged book looks like under pressure.