Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh's Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of the cycle, and the target range is 3.75–4.00%. Three weeks ago the October 28 meeting was a coin flip, hold 55% against a second hike at 45%.

It is now priced as a pause. Kalshi has Fed maintains rate at 82.5% and Hike 25bps at 16.5%, on $154,014 of 24-hour volume, a quarter of what the book turned when it was split. Manifold agrees at 85%.

December has not moved with it. Hike 25bps at the December 9 meeting is 70.5%, a point and a half higher than in mid-September. The market reads October as a skipped meeting, not the end of the cycle.

The chair-specific books have turned over. The October dissent board, which had no name above 5%, now marks Beth Hammack at 67% and Lorie Logan at 48%. Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before January 1 has fallen from 48% to 29.5%, and its volume from $436,576 a day to $1,532.

Kalshi's October decision book carries $154,014 of 24-hour volume, $103,833 of it on the hold leg. Manifold lists the same meeting on a few hundred dollars, with no change at 85%, and sits beside it for completeness, not for price discovery.

Hold and a 25bp hike take 99% of the October distribution between them, split 82.5% to 16.5%. The cut leg below is priced at 1% and is on the page because it is where the tail money sits: $805,330 of open interest, up from $323,362 in mid-September. Kalshi's cumulative ladder to its right prices the same question as a rate: Above 4.00% after October at 18%, down from 48%.

Next Fed rate hike prices Before 2027 at 79%, which is the October and December meetings restated as one question; Before July 2027 is 91%. December itself is on the right: Hike 25bps at 70.5% and a hold at 26.5%, on $61,097. With October at 16.5%, nearly all of the year's remaining hike probability now sits on the December 9 meeting.

The October press conference book settles November 12 and is nearly idle at $155: Central Bank at 90%, Good Day at 87%, Restrictive at 82%. The October dissent book has changed character. In mid-September no name was above 5%; it now marks Beth Hammack at 67%, Lorie Logan at 48% and Neel Kashkari at 31.5%. Nothing traded on it today and it holds $12,738 of open interest, so these are thin marks, but they are marks for dissent against a hold.

The live question in the chair transition was how long the President stays quiet about his Fed chair. The book below was the most heavily traded on this page in September; it has since gone quiet and its price has fallen by more than a third.

October 28 is priced as a hold at 82.5%. The risk the book is carrying is a second hike at 16.5%, down from 45% three weeks ago.

December is the tell. At 70.5% for a hike it is far more committed than October. If a hold on October 28 leaves December where it is, the market read a skip; if December falls with it, the market read a stop.

Watch the dissent book. Hammack at 67% and Logan at 48% are the first double-digit names this board has shown. They price a hold that part of the committee votes against, on very little trading.

Watch the Trump book. Before January 1 is 29.5%, down from 48%, and before November 1 is 6%. It holds $464,394 of open interest and turned $1,532 today.