Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh's Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of the cycle. The October 28 decision is in and Kalshi's October books have settled, so this page follows the two meetings after it.

December 9 is priced for a second hike. Kalshi has Hike 25bps at 76.5% against 22.5% for a hold, on $46,966 of 24-hour volume and $3,037,823 of open interest. Manifold's December question agrees, with Increase at 74.54%.

January 27 leans the other way. Kalshi's January 2027 book has Fed maintains rate at 74.5% and Hike 25bps at 20%, on $666 of volume: a market that expects a pause after December, but is thinly traded.

The chair-specific books have cooled. Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before January 1 is 15.5%, down from 28.5% at the last review, on $10,215 of volume in a day.

Kalshi's January 2027 decision book turned $666 in a day against $136,511 of open interest, and settles at 2:05 pm ET on January 27. Beside it, Manifold's December question, Increase at 74.54% and No change at 24% with none of its legs traded in a day, covers a different meeting: read it against Kalshi's December book further down, not against January.

The three legs below are Kalshi's January 27 book: a hold at 74.5%, a 25bp hike at 20% and a 25bp cut at 3.5%. The hike leg carries the most open interest, $38,338, against $36,322 on the hold and $25,899 on the cut. Kalshi's December after-meeting ladder to the right prices the rate itself: its strikes through Above 3.75% sit between 97% and 99%, which is the current range holding, and the December hike sits on the rung above, priced through the decision book at 76.5%.

Next Fed rate hike prices Before 2027 at 78.5%, which is the December 9 meeting restated as a timing question; Before July 2027 is 86%. It turned $3,699 in a day, $3,454 of it on Before 2027. December itself is on the right: Hike 25bps at 76.5% and a hold at 22.5%, on $46,966. With January at 20% for a hike, most of the near-term hike probability sits on December.

Kalshi's board on Warsh's December press conference settles December 24 and has barely opened: $75 in a day on $4,671 of open interest. Productivity is 86.5%, Projection 82%, AI / Artificial Intelligence 80%, Central Bank 79% and Geopolitical 77%; most legs shown have not traded. The December dissent board settles on the December 9 vote, holds $13,772 of open interest and did not trade in a day. No name is above 22%: Beth Hammack at 21.5%, Lisa Cook 14.5%, Michelle Bowman and Lorie Logan 14% each, and Neel Kashkari 12.5%. These are early, thin marks spread across the committee.

The live question in the chair transition is how long the President stays quiet about his Fed chair. The book below turned $10,215 in a day, $9,973 of it on Before Jan 1, 2027, now at 15.5%, down from 28.5% at the last review. Before Dec 1, 2026 is 3% and Before Apr 1, 2027 is 35.5%.

December 9 is the next decision, priced as a hike at 76.5%. A hold is 22.5% and a hike larger than 25bp 1.5%. How far the hold leg moves between now and the meeting is the read on whether the cycle continues.

January is the tell on the cycle's length. A hold at 74.5% prices December as the last move for now; the 20% hike leg allows for one more. It turned $666 in a day, so these marks have room to move.

The December dissent board settles on the December 9 vote. Hammack at 21.5% leads a field with no clear favorite, on a board that did not trade in a day.

Watch the Trump book. Before January 1 is 15.5% and before December 1 is 3%. It holds $469,643 of open interest and turned $10,215 in a day.