Fed Chair Transition Tracker

Kevin Warsh's Fed raised rates 25bp on September 16, the first hike of the cycle and the first decision of his chairmanship to move anything. Kalshi's September book had it at 88% going in, after sitting at a coin flip nine days earlier. The target range is now 3.75–4.00%.

October 28 resets the same question. Kalshi prices hold at 55% and a second 25bp hike at 45%; Polymarket, on $3,043,731 of 24-hour volume, is within a point on both legs. December is not close—Kalshi has Hike 25bps at the December 9 meeting at 69%.

The chair-specific books are quietly the more interesting ones now. Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before January 1, 2027 trades at 48% on $436,576 a day, a larger book than the October dissent and mention markets put together.

Kalshi's October decision book carries $618,683 of 24-hour volume. Manifold lists the same meeting on a few hundred dollars and sits beside it for completeness, not for price discovery.

Hold and a 25bp hike take 99% of the October distribution between them. The cut leg below is priced at 1% and is on the page because it is where the tail money goes—$323,362 of open interest sits on it. Kalshi's cumulative ladder to its right prices the same question as a rate: Above 4.00% after October at 48%.

Next Fed rate hike has rolled to its 2028 book now that the September hike settled the old one; Before 2027 trades at 82%, which is the October and December meetings restated as one question. December itself is on the right, and at 69% for a hike it is the more committed of the two prints left in 2026.

The October press conference book settles November 12 and is thin at $5,791: Geopolitical at 91%, Good Day at 86%, Credit at 79%. The October dissent book is thinner still at $4,200, with Philip Jefferson the top name at 5% and nobody else above 2%—a board the market expects to vote together.

The live question in the chair transition is no longer who runs the Fed but how long the President stays quiet about it. The book below is the most heavily traded on this page.

October 28 is the next decision and the market is genuinely split. A hold keeps the hiking cycle alive without extending it; a second hike would make this the fastest two-meeting tightening of Warsh's tenure, which is all of it.

December is the tell. At 69% for a hike it is more committed than October. If a hold on October 28 leaves December where it is, the market read a skip; if December falls with it, the market read a stop.

Watch the dissent book for a signal it has never given. It has stayed under a nickel on every name through the September hike. A name priced into double digits before a meeting would be the first real disagreement this board has been expected to show.

Watch the Trump book. At 48% through year-end it is the largest question on this page by volume, and it is not about rates at all.