F1 Race Books 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

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George Russell won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Kalshi's race book closed on a $553,906 final day and paid the Russell leg; Kimi Antonelli, the favourite on both exchanges, did not win. The race books have settled and neither exchange has listed the Singapore Grand Prix yet, so this page moves to the season boards until they do.

The championship barely moved. Kalshi prices Antonelli at 92.5% for the drivers' title and Russell at 5.5%; Polymarket has them at 91.1% and 5.2%. A race win bought Russell a few points of probability and most of the day's attention.

Kalshi's drivers' board settles December 8 and turns $71,607 a day against 4.5M contracts of open interest. Polymarket's turns $107,068. The two agree on the order of the top three—Antonelli, Russell, then Lando Norris at 1.5% and 0.7%—and sit about a point and a half apart on the leader.

Russell took $9,336 of Kalshi's day and $29,409 of Polymarket's—13% and 27% of each book, for a driver priced near 5%. He is the one name outside Antonelli with money behind him after Baku. Both legs below, side by side.

Left: Polymarket's constructors' board, $10,195 today, with Mercedes at 96.4%—Ferrari 1.1% and McLaren 0.4% behind. Right: Manifold's drivers' board, which carries no real money but prices Antonelli at 90.4% and Russell at 4%, within two points of both real-money venues.

Kalshi's constructors' board has Mercedes at 96.5% on $5,030, a tenth from Polymarket—the title is priced as settled in all but name. Beside it, Polymarket asks whether Max Verstappen retires from F1 in 2026: 5.4% on $1,747. Verstappen is also 0.3% for the drivers' title on Polymarket, and that leg took $51,673, almost half the book's day.

Watch for the Singapore Grand Prix to list. When the race books open, this page moves back onto them and the season boards step down to context.

Watch Russell's price, not Antonelli's. At 92.5% the leader can only drift, and the question the market is still asking is whether anyone can make the title close. Russell at 5.5% after a win is the answer so far.

Watch the Verstappen money. $51,673 on a 0.3% contract is either a lottery ticket at scale or a book being used to hedge something else. If it repeats, it is structural.