European Club Football 2026-27

Arsenal has pulled further clear in England, and Barcelona is back alone at the top of the Champions League.

Premier League: Arsenal is 77.5% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket, up from 69.5% on both at the last review. Manchester City lost 3–1 at Nottingham Forest on November 8, its third straight league defeat, while Arsenal beat Hull City 1–0 to go six points clear. City is down to 6.5% on both money venues, behind Brighton on each. Manifold, untraded, still has Arsenal at 70.82% and City at 13%.

Champions League: Barcelona 22.5%, then PSG 19%, Real Madrid 15.5%, and Arsenal and Bayern Munich at 13.5%, on a $31,805 day. PSG took the most, $14,204. Como, at 1.5%, took $563 after a $211,133 day at the last review.

La Liga: Barcelona 69%, Real Madrid 29%, on $6,196.

Serie A and the Bundesliga stay quiet: Inter 62.5% on $420, Bayern Munich 90.5% on $40.

The standing positions still do not follow the prices. On Kalshi's Premier League board Liverpool, at 6.5%, holds the most open interest, 628,951, ahead of Arsenal's 581,955, with Brighton at 561,688 and Chelsea, at 1.5%, at 554,863.

The two boards with the most paper behind them: the Premier League holds 4.38M of open interest and the Champions League 4.33M. They traded $10,349 and $31,805 in the past day. Arsenal leads England at 77.5%; Barcelona leads Europe at 22.5%, three and a half points clear of PSG.

Como against Barcelona on the Champions League board. Barcelona is 22.5%, two points firmer than at the last review, holds 791,851 of open interest and took $4,294 in the past day. Como is 1.5%, down from 2.5%, and took just $563, after a $211,133 day at the last review. Its open interest, 474,992, has barely moved, so the positions built then are still held.

La Liga and Serie A. Barcelona is 69% in Spain, with Real Madrid at 29% and Atlético Madrid at 1.5%; Barcelona took $4,030 of a $6,196 day and Real Madrid $2,017. Inter is 62.5% in Italy, up from 57%, ahead of Roma at 17%, Lazio 7.5%, and Milan and Como at 5.5%, on a board that traded $420, all of it on Roma and Lazio.

Bundesliga, where Bayern Munich is 90.5% and Dortmund 6% on $40 of trading, and Polymarket's Premier League board, the busiest Premier League book on the page at $23,185. Polymarket prices Arsenal at 75.5%, two points under Kalshi's 77.5%, with Brighton 6.8%, Manchester City 6.5% and Liverpool 5.8%. Its busiest legs were Chelsea and Brighton, about $2,920 each, while Arsenal's took $750.

The derived Premier League boards, both on Polymarket. Relegation: Hull City 57%, Coventry City 55%, Manchester City 45%, Crystal Palace 41% and Ipswich Town 37%, on a $6,913 day, $4,984 of it on Manchester City. City's 45% to go down is a thin-book quote, not a forecast, for a side Kalshi prices at 6.5% for the title. Top goalscorer: Erling Haaland 59.5%, down from 68.5%, with Alexander Isak at 12% and João Pedro at 5.65%, on $1,293. Below them, Manifold's title board, untraded in the past day, which has Arsenal at 70.82%.

The domestic seasons run to late May 2027; the Champions League final is June 5, 2027.

• Arsenal at 75.5% to 77.5%. Kalshi and Polymarket agree within two points; untraded Manifold lags at 70.82%.
• Manchester City's slide. 6.5% for the title on both money venues after three straight league defeats, now behind Brighton.
• Barcelona alone in Europe. 22.5%, with PSG back to 19% after drawing level at 20.5%.
• Real Madrid in Spain. 29%, against Barcelona's 69%.
• Open interest versus price in England. Liverpool at 6.5%, Brighton at 7.5% and Chelsea at 1.5% hold about as much paper as Arsenal. Positions built at longer odds do not unwind just because the price moves.