European Club Football 2026-27

The title boards have sorted themselves out since September. The favorites have pulled away in England and Spain, and the half-cent flow that dominated these boards then has mostly gone quiet.

Premier League: Arsenal is 62.5% on Kalshi, 61.5% on Polymarket and 61.3% on Manifold, up from about even money in early September. Manchester City is second near 21% on all three and took the most on Kalshi today, $10,006 of $16,048. Chelsea has fallen from 14.5% to 3.5%.

La Liga: Barcelona 79%, up from 61.5%, with Real Madrid at 18.5%.

Champions League: Barcelona leads at 25.5%, then Bayern Munich 14.5%, Arsenal 13.5%, PSG 12.5% and Real Madrid 11.5%. Barcelona took $5,155 of the board's $15,941 day.

Serie A and the Bundesliga barely traded: Inter 55.5% on $197, Bayern Munich 85% on $5.

The standing positions still do not follow the prices. On Kalshi's Premier League board Liverpool at 6.5% holds the most open interest, 624,624, ahead of Arsenal's 570,359, and Brighton at 2.5% holds 524,846. Como, 2% for the Champions League, holds 212,114 without trading today.

The two boards with the most paper behind them: the Champions League holds 2.76M of open interest and the Premier League 4.12M. They traded $15,941 and $16,048 today, small against those positions, and both now have a clear name on top: Barcelona at 25.5% and Arsenal at 62.5%.

Como against Barcelona on the Champions League board. Barcelona is 25.5%, holds 717,042 of open interest and took $5,155 today. Como is 2%, up from half a cent in September, and holds 212,114, about four times what it held then. It did not trade today: the flow that built the position has stopped, and the position is still there.

La Liga and Serie A. Barcelona is 79% in Spain, with Real Madrid at 18.5%; the busiest leg was Atletico Madrid at 2%, $1,809 of a $2,956 day. Inter is 55.5% in Italy, ahead of Roma at 21% and Juventus at 7.5%, on a board that traded $197.

Bundesliga, where Bayern Munich is 85% and Dortmund 8% on $5 of trading, and Polymarket's Premier League board, the busiest book on the page at $41,991. Polymarket prices Arsenal 61.5% against Kalshi's 62.5%, and its busiest leader was Liverpool at 6.85%, $2,829.

The derived Premier League boards, both on Polymarket. Relegation: Coventry City 65%, Hull City 50.5%, down from 58.5%, and Ipswich Town 40%, on a $2,159 day that went almost entirely to two legs quoted at 26%, Crystal Palace and Manchester City. Top goalscorer: Erling Haaland 59.5%, with João Pedro at 13% and Alexander Isak at 12%, on $480. Below them, Manifold's title board, which has Arsenal at 61.3%.

The domestic seasons run to late May 2027; the Champions League final is June 5, 2027.

• Arsenal at 62%. Three venues agree within a point and a half. The gap to Manchester City, about forty points, opened in a month.
• Barcelona on two boards. 79% for La Liga and 25.5% for the Champions League, the favorite on both.
• Open interest versus price in England. Liverpool at 6.5% and Brighton at 2.5% hold more paper than most of the names above them. Positions built at longer odds do not unwind just because the price moves.
• Como's 212,114. A 2% Champions League leg with a large position and no trading today.
• The quiet boards. Serie A and the Bundesliga traded $202 between them; their prices are quotes until that changes.