Esports Markets 2026 — CS2, LoL, Valorant, Dota

A contract priced at half a cent has taken 80% of the money on its board. Just_Players–Black Phoenix is 99.5 / 0.5 and the losing side has turned $44,791 of the match's $56,025, against $20,238 for the favourite. Open interest on the 0.5% leg runs to 32,556 contracts, more than double the favourite's.

Polymarket's LoL book is $1.84 million on three games that are already decided. Game 1, Game 2 and Game 3 of T1 Academy–KT Rolster Challengers are each quoted 99.95% and have taken $588,683, $518,637 and $721,416. That is $1.83M of the day's flow paying 99.95 cents to make five hundredths of a cent, and it is the single largest book on any exchange this catalog tracks today.

The boards that are genuinely uncertain are the quiet ones. Bushido Wildcats–Leo Team is 55.5 / 45.5 on $44,330; Phantom Academy–EAC Extra is 60.5 / 42.0 on $31,858. Both are real two-way markets and both turn less than the decided CS2 match above them.

Left: Just_Players–Black Phoenix, 99.5 / 0.5, settling at 15:00 UTC. Right: the 0.5% leg, which has taken $44,791—four fifths of the board.

Left: Just_Players at 99.5%, $20,238 traded, 14,912 contracts held. Right: Phantom Academy at 60.5% on a match that is still genuinely open.

The decided board turns nearly twice the open one. That inversion is the defining property of Kalshi's esports complex.

Phantom Academy–EAC Extra, $31,858, quoted 60.5 / 42.0—a book that sums to 102.5% and has a real disagreement inside it.

Both legs of Bushido Wildcats–Leo Team: 55.5% on $33,707 against 45.5% on $17,625. The money follows the price here, roughly two to one on a price of five to four—the closest thing to an efficient book on this page.

Below: the Map 2 board for the same match, quoted 92.5 / 7.5 with the two sides within $101 of each other on volume; a Valorant match at 57.5 / 41.5 on $5,504; and Team Nemesis–WW Team at 64.5 / 36.0. Then Polymarket's $1.84M LoL book full width.

Two different pathologies are visible on this page at once. Kalshi's flow piles into half-cent legs on decided matches; Polymarket's piles into 99.95-cent legs on decided games. They are the same trade seen from opposite ends—someone is selling the certainty and someone is buying it—and both produce enormous volume on outcomes that carry no information.

The Map 2 board is the cleanest example. Quoted 92.5 against 7.5, and the two sides have traded $9,932 and $9,831: a dead-even money split on a twelve-to-one price. No forecast is being expressed there.

Watch the open boards instead. Bushido–Leo at 55.5 and Phantom–EAC at 60.5 are the only two markets on this page where the price is doing work, and between them they turn less than the single decided CS2 match at the top.