Government Shutdown Watch: December 12, 2026

Congress passed a stopgap that funds the government through December 11, and the October 1 contracts are finished. Kalshi's closed after trading down to 1%, and PredictIt's settles tonight.

The live question is December 12. Kalshi's contract for that date prices a shutdown at 34.5%, up from 28% on September 25, on $917 of flow today. It is still the only exchange contract on the next deadline; Manifold's shutdown before January 2027 sits at 58% beside it.

Left, Kalshi's December 12 contract at 34.5%: about one chance in three that the stopgap runs out with nothing behind it. Right, Manifold's shutdown before January 2027 at 58% on thin play-money volume. The two ask close to the same question and sit 24 points apart; Kalshi's is the one with money behind it.

December 13 settles the December 12 contract.

• December 12 at 34.5%, up from 28% a week ago, on thin books. It is the only forward shutdown price on an exchange, and the first real flow will move it.
• A third stopgap at 56%. If that rung climbs, the December contract should fall with it.
• The count board at 63% for two. It has not traded today; watch whether it follows the December price.

Kalshi's count board prices 2 shutdowns in 2026 at 63% and 3 at 33.5%, with nothing traded today; its next move depends on December 12. Polymarket's shutdown-and-House board prices Shutdown & Democratic Party at 92%. Its only flow today, $126, was on the Republican leg at 7.9%.

Kalshi's continuing-resolution board prices At least 2 FY2027 stopgaps at 95% and At least 3 at 56%, on $51 today. With the first one passed, the market expects the year to be funded in stopgaps, not bills.