Government Shutdown Watch — Oct 1 and Dec 12, 2026

Kalshi's October 1 shutdown contract has fallen to 1%, with $445,834 of open interest still sitting on it and $3,385 of flow today. PredictIt agrees at 1% and Manifold at 2.8%. A month ago the same contract was the live question on this page.

The live question is now December 12. Kalshi has listed a shutdown contract for that date at 28%, on $2,046 of flow and $2,212 of open interest—thin, but the only venue pricing the next deadline.

Kalshi 1%, PredictIt 1%, Manifold 2.8% on October 1: every venue has priced it out. Beside Kalshi's October contract sits its December 12 contract at 28%. Below, Manifold's shutdown before January 2027 at 77%, on no volume—the one price here that still reads like the page's old story.

October 2 settles the October 1 contract. December 13 settles the December 12 contract.

• December 12 at 28% on thin books. It is the only forward shutdown price on any venue, and the first real flow will move it.
• $445,834 of open interest on October 1 at 1%. That position settles within a week and frees the deepest money on this page.
• Two shutdowns in 2026 at 64%. If December 12 passes quietly, that bucket has to fall.

Kalshi's count board puts two shutdowns in 2026 at 64% and three at 32%. With the spring DHS lapse already banked, two means one more before year-end, a reading that fits the December contract better than October's. Polymarket's shutdown-and-House board prices Shutdown & Democratic Party at 92.4% on $20,079 of open interest and no flow today.

No FY2027 appropriations bill is priced to become law before October 1: At least 1 sits at 1%. Kalshi's continuing-resolution board puts At least 3 at 62% on $31 of open interest, a market that expects the year to be funded in stopgaps, not bills.