Government Shutdown Watch: December 12, 2026

Congress passed a stopgap in September that funds the government through December 11, and the October 1 contracts have settled. The fiscal 2027 spending bills are still unfinished heading into the year-end session.

The live question is December 12. Kalshi's contract for that date prices a shutdown at 39%, down from 41.5%, on $31,901 of flow in the last day, its busiest day on this page by far. It is still the only exchange contract on the next deadline; Manifold's shutdown before January 2027 sits beside it as a play-money read.

Left, Kalshi's December 12 contract at 39%: about two chances in five that the stopgap runs out with nothing behind it, on $139,726 of open interest, up from $49,097. Right, Manifold's shutdown before January 2027, a play-money book on close to the same question, at 52.88%, untraded in the last day. The two now sit about 14 points apart with Manifold the higher, down from 29; Kalshi's is the one with money behind it, and it has eased two and a half points since the last update even as its open interest nearly tripled.

December 13 settles the December 12 contract.

• December 12 at 39%, down two and a half points on $31,901 of flow in a day, with open interest at $139,726. It is the only forward shutdown price on an exchange.
• The Manifold comparison. The play-money book sits at 52.88%, about 14 points above Kalshi's, half the gap at the last update.
• A third stopgap at 73%. That rung has climbed from 58%, and the December contract has eased with it: the market leans toward another stopgap over a lapse.
• The count board at 63% for two. It has barely traded in the last day; it leans the same way as Kalshi's December price.
• The year-end session. The fiscal 2027 bills are unfinished, and Congress has until December 11 to pass full-year bills or another stopgap.

Kalshi's count board prices 2 shutdowns in 2026 at 63%, 3 at 30% and 4 at 7.7%, on $62 in the last day, all of it on 3; the board barely trades, and it has hardly moved since the last update, consistent with Kalshi's December price easing. Polymarket's shutdown-and-House board settled with the election and has left the page.

Kalshi's continuing-resolution board prices At least 2 FY2027 stopgaps at 96.5%, At least 3 at 73% and At least 4 at 26%, untraded in the last day. At least 3 is up from 58% at the last update. With the first one passed, the market expects the year to be funded in stopgaps, not bills.