Crypto Clarity Act 2026

The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the CLARITY Act, and the enactment books are still falling. Polymarket's signed into law in 2026 contract is 4.95%, down from 6.7% on September 30; Kalshi's before January 2027 rung is 4.65%, down from 8.1%. Manifold sits at 8%.

The longer rungs have gone with it. Kalshi's before January 2028 rung, which held 28% after the vote, is now 16.5%. The market had treated the bill as late rather than dead; it is now pricing some of both. Jurisdiction between the CFTC and the SEC stays with existing authorities for now.

Kalshi's whip count on the Clarity Act asks how many senators vote for it. Nothing traded today against 74,649 contracts of open interest, and the rungs are not ordered: Above 50 at 7% sits below Above 58 at 9%. That is a book nobody is maintaining since the cloture vote, not a signal.

Manifold's passes in September contract, which sat beside it, has settled and left the page.

Kalshi's enactment ladder is the page's anchor: 4.65% by January 2027, 6% by April 2027, 11.5% by July 2027, 14.5% by October 2027, 16.5% by January 2028. On September 30 the last rung was 28%, and in August the ladder ran 19.5% to 49%. The back of the ladder has now fallen as far as the front.

The book turned $2,287 today against $4.01M of open interest; the January 2027 rung took $781 of it. Polymarket's year-end history sits beside it, and shows the fall.

A 50-vote Senate majority at 7% against enactment before January 2027 at 4.65%. In August these two rungs were fifty-six points apart and the argument was process risk between a vote and a signature. After cloture failed, they sit within two and a half points of each other, and the vote rung is an untraded quote: the market no longer expects the vote this year either.

The same year-end question on three venues. Polymarket 4.95% on $27,264 today and $5.63M of open interest—the deepest single contract on the page. Manifold 8%, play money, untraded today. PredictIt's midpoint is 17.5% and nothing traded today—read it as a stale quote, not a dissent.

The two liquid venues, Polymarket and Kalshi, agree within half a point. They have simply agreed on a much lower number.

Kalshi's per-senator Multiple on the Clarity vote, beside the general bills book for scale. The senator book did not trade today; Josh Hawley tops the board at 10.5%, with Kirsten Gillibrand at 7%. With cloture failed and no new vote scheduled, the individual rungs have nothing to trade on. The bills book turned $224, led by the Protect College Sports Act at 47%.

• Whether a second cloture vote is scheduled. Nothing on the page prices one directly. A scheduled vote would show up first in the January 2027 rung, which took a third of Kalshi's day.
• The January 2028 rung at 16.5%. It was 28% after the vote. If it keeps falling, the market is pricing the bill as dead rather than late.
• Polymarket under 5%. The page's deepest contract traded $27,264 on the way down.
• Whether PredictIt catches up. A 17.5% midpoint against 4.95% on Polymarket is a gap only an untraded book can hold.