Crypto Clarity Act 2026

The Senate failed to invoke cloture on the CLARITY Act, and the enactment books have repriced to match. Polymarket's signed into law in 2026 contract is 6.7%, down from 23.5% when this page last ran; Kalshi's before January 2027 rung is 8.1%, down from 22%. Manifold agrees at 8%.

The bill is not dead in the market's eyes, only late. Kalshi still prices enactment before January 2028 at 28%. What the vote removed is 2026: jurisdiction between the CFTC and the SEC stays with existing authorities for now, and the market has moved its weight into 2027 and beyond.

Left: Kalshi's whip count on the Clarity Act, which asks how many senators vote for it. Nothing traded today against 75,204 contracts of open interest, and the rungs are no longer ordered—Above 50 at 7.5% sits below Above 62 at 9%. That is a book nobody is maintaining since the cloture vote, not a signal.

Right: Manifold's passes in September—1.4%, settling September 30. It is the cleanest read of what the failed vote did to the near term.

Kalshi's enactment ladder is the page's anchor: 5.5% by December 2026, 8.1% by January 2027, 8.5% by April 2027, 13% by July 2027, 14.5% by October 2027, 28% by January 2028. In August the same ladder ran 19.5% to 49%. Every rung has roughly halved, and the steepest step is now the last one.

The book turned $5,517 today against $3.99M of open interest; the January 2027 rung took $2,560 of it. Polymarket's year-end history sits beside it, and shows the fall.

A 50-vote Senate majority at 7.5% against enactment before January 2027 at 8.1%. In August these two rungs were fifty-six points apart and the argument was process risk between a vote and a signature. After cloture failed, they sit within a point of each other: the market no longer expects the vote this year either.

The same year-end question on three venues. Polymarket 6.7% on $15,052 today and $5.87M of open interest—the deepest single contract on the page. Manifold 8%, play money. PredictIt's midpoint is 20%, but its last trade was 34% and nothing traded today—read it as a stale quote, not a dissent.

The two liquid venues agree within a point and a half, as they did in August. They have simply agreed on a much lower number.

Kalshi's per-senator Multiple on the Clarity vote, beside the general bills book for scale. The senator book turned $248 today, all of it on Rand Paul at 7.5%; Josh Hawley tops the board at 10%. With cloture failed and no new vote scheduled, the individual rungs have nothing to trade on.

• Whether a second cloture vote is scheduled. Nothing on the page prices one directly. A scheduled vote would show up first in the January 2027 rung, which took nearly half of Kalshi's day.
• The January 2028 rung at 28%. It is where the market has parked the bill. If it keeps falling, the market is pricing the bill as dead rather than late.
• Manifold's September contract at 1.4% settles September 30 and drops off the page.
• Whether PredictIt catches up. A 20% midpoint against 6.7% on Polymarket is a gap only an untraded book can hold.