Crypto Clarity Act 2026

Polymarket's signed into law in 2026 contract is 1.45%, from 3%, on $14,170 in the past day. Kalshi's before January 2027 rung is 2.85%, unchanged, so the two liquid venues still agree the bill is all but done for this year. Manifold shows 5.12% and PredictIt 4.5%, the latter untraded.

The longer rungs have recovered. Kalshi's before January 2028 rung is 28.5%, from 20%, and before October 2027 18%, from 15%. The market prices the bill as very unlikely this year and a bit better than one chance in four by the end of next. Jurisdiction between the CFTC and the SEC stays with existing authorities for now.

Kalshi's whip count on the Clarity Act asks how many senators vote for it. $25 traded in the past day against $71,894 of open interest, and the rungs are still out of order: Above 58, Above 60, Above 62 and Above 66 are all 5.5%, and Above 64 and Above 50 4.5%. That is a book left standing since the cloture vote, not a signal.

Kalshi's enactment ladder is the page's anchor: 2.85% by January 2027, 8.5% by April 2027, 11% by July 2027, 18% by October 2027, 28.5% by January 2028. On November 5 it ran 2.85%, 7%, 12%, 15% and 20%; on September 30 the last rung was 28%, and in August the ladder ran 19.5% to 49%. The near rung held, and the far rungs did the moving.

The book turned $11,129 in the past day against $2.17M of open interest; the January 2028 rung took $10,153 of it. Polymarket's year-end history sits beside it, and shows the fall.

A 50-vote Senate majority at 4.5% against enactment before January 2027 at 2.85%. In August these two rungs were fifty-six points apart and the argument was process risk between a vote and a signature. Earlier this fall the order inverted; the vote rung is still above enactment, the order that makes sense. The vote rung barely trades, $20 in the past day, so read the enactment rung: the market doesn't expect the bill this year.

The same year-end question across the venues. Polymarket 1.45% on $14,170 in the past day and $4.77M of open interest, the deepest single contract on the page. Kalshi's January 2027 rung 2.85%, on $859. Manifold 5.12%, play money. PredictIt's midpoint is 4.5% with nothing traded, a stale quote rather than a dissent.

The two liquid venues, Polymarket and Kalshi, sit within about a point and a half of each other.

Kalshi's per-senator Multiple on the Clarity vote, beside the general bills book for scale. The senator book turned $1,172 in the past day; Catherine Cortez Masto tops it at 3%, with Andy Kim at 2.5%, Josh Hawley and Mike Lee at 2%, and Angela Alsobrooks 1%. With cloture failed and no new vote scheduled, the individual legs have little to trade on. The bills book turned $5,675, led by export-control chip security at 48%, then defense-contractor buyback restrictions at 35.5%, the Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act at 29.5% and AI-chip export licensing at 25%.

• Whether a second cloture vote is scheduled. Nothing on the page prices one directly. A scheduled vote would show up first in Kalshi's January 2027 rung, still 2.85%.
• The January 2028 rung at 28.5%. It was 28% after the vote, fell to 16.5%, recovered to 21%, slipped to 20%, and has climbed back, taking most of the ladder's $11,129 day. If it keeps rising, the market is pricing the bill as late rather than dead.
• Polymarket at 1.45%. The page's deepest contract, with $4.77M open.
• PredictIt at 4.5%. Its stale midpoint has come down, though it is still about three times Polymarket's.