October 2026 CPI Release

The October CPI report is due Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30am ET, and the headline chain has firmed around a 0.2% month. Kalshi's month-over-month book holds $441,112 of open interest and turned $28,715 today, the busiest book on the page.

Headline: Above 0.1% is 87.5%, Above 0.2% 62.5%, up from 50% a week ago, and Above 0.3% 26.5%. That puts about 36% on exactly 0.2%, 26.5% on 0.3% or more and 25% on 0.1%. Above 0.2% is also the largest position, $184,428 of open interest.

Core: the core chain is a coin flip at 0.2%: Above 0.1% is 74.5%, Above 0.2% 50.5% and Above 0.3% 17.5%, on $330,033 of open interest and a quiet $1,021 day.

Kalshi's year-over-year books point at the November print, due December 10; there is no October year-over-year book on the exchange.

Kalshi's cumulative chains, displayed in their native form. Cumulative markets price "above X", so each step down the ladder is the probability the print clears that threshold; the gap between two adjacent strikes is the odds of landing exactly in between.

The October month-over-month chain holds $441,112 of open interest and traded $28,715 today. The two year-over-year chains beside it settle on the November print, a month further out, and trade far less: $4,979 on headline, where Above 3.4% is 95.5%, and $441 on core, where Above 2.4% is 96.5%.

The Categorical books sit beside the chains. They express the same question as a discrete distribution rather than a ladder.

The October month-over-month Categorical leans hotter than the chain: Exactly 0.3% 35%, 0.2% 26%, 0.4% 13%, 0.1% 11.5%, on $1,110, nearly all of it on 0.3%. The chain puts only 26.5% on 0.3% or more. The November year-over-year Categorical is not readable yet: it traded $29 today and its marks, 3.2% at 57% and 4.0% at 14%, contradict the chain. Use the chains.

Core month over month prices Above 0.1% at 74.5%, Above 0.2% at 50.5% and Above 0.3% at 17.5%.

The annual context widgets round out the stack: Polymarket's 2026 inflation-ceiling book, where Above 4.5% is 15.5% and Above 5% 8%, and the Manifold binary on whether 2026 inflation runs higher than 2025's, at 60%.

• A 0.2% month is the base case. Above 0.2% month over month is 62.5%, up from 50% a week ago, and Above 0.3% is 26.5%.
• The exact-value board disagrees. It has 0.3% at 35% on a $1,110 day; the chain, with $441,112 of open interest, is the stronger signal.
• Core at a coin flip. Above 0.2% core is 50.5%.
• Year over year means November. Kalshi's year-over-year chains settle on the December 10 release; the exact-value board barely trades.
• The year's ceiling. Polymarket prices inflation above 4.5% at some point in 2026 at 15.5%.
• Next release: Tuesday, November 10, 8:30am ET, covering October data. The countdown at the top of the page tracks the October book's settlement that morning.