Corporate Operating Metrics 2026

Kalshi lists a family of contracts on company and infrastructure operating data: airplane deliveries, vehicle sales, insurance policies in force, port container volume, transit ridership. The quarter has turned, and the page has turned with it: Tesla's and Ford's third-quarter boards have closed and come off, and their first-quarter 2027 ladders take their place.

Tesla's new delivery ladder is the busiest book here at $9,009. Above 300,000 is 94% and took $4,692; Above 400,000 is the coin flip at 47.5%. Ford's Q1 2027 board has taken $440, all of it on Above 480,000 at 47.5%.

The California FAIR Plan board is now a waiting game. It settles November 23 on the policy count as of September 30, a date that has passed, so the count is already fixed and the market is pricing what will be published: Above 700,000 is 83.5%, Above 710,000 38.5%, Above 720,000 20%. The 740,000 tail that took most of the board's volume three weeks ago is down to 1.5%.

Everything else is standing paper. Boeing's 2026 delivery ladder holds $35,732 of open interest and turned $2; its Q3 board, the South Carolina ports board and the NYC subway board did not trade at all. The whole family turned under $12,000 today, against about $115,000 a day when this page was built.

Flow on these boards has followed the reporting calendar: busy into a release, quiet after it.

The two boards the page was built on. The California FAIR Plan ladder settles November 23 on the policy count as of September 30; it turned $1,167 today and holds $24,109 of open interest, with Above 710,000 at 38.5% the rung nearest even. Boeing's 2026 delivery ladder settles in January 2028; it turned $2, with Above 620 at 78.5% and Above 640 at 54.5%, down from 68.5% three weeks ago.

The two upper rungs of the FAIR Plan ladder. Above 740,000 is marked 1.5% and did not trade today; three weeks ago it was 3.5% and took most of the board's volume. Above 720,000 is 20%, up from 7.5%, and holds 10,632 contracts, the largest position on the board.

The contract settles on a published policy count, so there is no ambiguity about what resolves it, only about where it lands.

Ford, quarterly and annual. The Q1 2027 board has just opened: $440, all on Above 480,000 at 47.5%, with Above 500,000 at 24.5%, so the quarter is priced to land a little under 480,000 vehicles. The annual board turned $104 and has firmed: Above 2 million is 83.5%, up from 72.5% three weeks ago.

Both settle long after the numbers are public: the Q1 board on July 31, 2027 and the annual board on January 31, 2028.

The two consumer-vehicle boards. Tesla's Q1 2027 delivery ladder turned $9,009 and prices Above 300,000 at 94%, Above 350,000 at 84%, Above 375,000 at 92% and Above 400,000 at 47.5%. A cumulative ladder cannot price a higher threshold above a lower one, but the 375,000 rung took $973 today and the 350,000 rung $378, and nobody has closed the gap.

Carvana's Q3 board turned $998 and is properly ordered: Above 200,000 at 98.5%, Above 210,000 at 86.5%, Above 215,000 at 61%, Above 220,000 at 18.5%. Thin does not have to mean broken.

Infrastructure, where the same template produces almost no market at all. South Carolina's port board did not trade today and holds $11,063 of open interest: Above 2.3 million TEUs at 87.5%, Above 2.4 million at 36%, Above 2.5 million at 16.5%.

The NYC subway ridership board for October also took nothing and carries $12,822, priced Above 4.2 million weekday riders at 89.5%, Above 4.3 million at 66.5% and Above 4.4 million at 24.5%. Below, Boeing's Q3 delivery board: no trades, $44,449 of open interest, and Above 160 at 56.5%.

The California FAIR Plan board settles November 23 on the September 30 policy count. Carvana's Q3 board settles in February 2027, Ford's and Tesla's Q1 2027 boards on July 31, 2027, and Boeing's annual board on January 31, 2028.

• The FAIR Plan's 710,000 rung at 38.5%. The count date has passed; the board is pricing a number that is already fixed.
• Boeing at Above 640 (54.5%). Down from 68.5% three weeks ago, on a board that has stopped trading.
• Tesla's 400,000 coin flip for Q1 2027 deliveries, and whether the inverted 350,000 and 375,000 rungs correct.
• Ford above 2 million for 2026 at 83.5%, eleven points firmer than three weeks ago.
• Whether flow returns. The family turned under $12,000 today against about $115,000 a day three weeks ago.