Corporate Operating Metrics 2026

Kalshi lists a whole family of contracts on company and infrastructure operating data—airplane deliveries, vehicle sales, insurance policies in force, port container volume, subscriber counts—and between them they turn about $115,000 a day. Nothing in the shared catalog has covered them until now.

Two boards carry most of it. Boeing's 2026 commercial delivery ladder turns $45,198 and prices Above 640 at 68.5%, Above 660 at 37.5% and Above 680 at 13.5%—an implied full-year number a little over 650 aircraft. The California FAIR Plan board turns $35,375 on how many policies the state's insurer of last resort has in force on September 30.

The FAIR Plan board is the one worth reading twice. $20,412—58% of its entire day—bought "Above 740,000" at 3.5%. The board's own view is that the FAIR Plan will not reach 740,000 policies; the money is buying that outcome anyway, at three and a half cents. Above 720,000 sits at 7.5% and holds 19,497 contracts, the largest standing position on the board. This is a wildfire-exposure contract in everything but name—the FAIR Plan grows when private insurers withdraw from California, so the ladder is a market-priced read on how fast that is happening.

Ford runs two boards, quarterly and annual, and the annual one has an unusually sharp edge: Above 2 million is 72.5% and Above 2.05 million is 10.5%. Sixty-two points across fifty thousand vehicles. The market is not uncertain about whether Ford lands in that band—it is close to certain.

Tesla's Q3 delivery ladder does not hold together. Above 450,000 is 49.5%, Above 465,000 is 47.0%, and then Above 470,000 is 71.0%—a higher threshold priced twenty-four points above a lower one, on a board that has taken $797 all day. Below that, the family thins out fast: Boeing's quarterly board turns $201, Carvana $400, Starlink subscribers $37, Lockheed's F-35 deliveries $26, and five of the six port-volume boards have never traded at all.

That distribution is the point. The same templated contract structure produces a $45,198 market and a market depending entirely on whether anyone has heard of the number being forecast.

The two boards with real money in them. The California FAIR Plan ladder turns $35,375 and settles November 23 on the policy count as of September 30—seven rungs from Above 680,000 (97.5%) to Above 740,000 (3.5%). Boeing's 2026 delivery ladder turns $45,198 and settles January 2028, eight rungs implying a little over 650 commercial aircraft.

The two ends of the FAIR Plan ladder. Above 740,000 is marked 3.5% and took $20,412 today—58% of the board. Above 720,000 is marked 7.5% and holds 19,497 contracts, more standing position than any other rung.

The gap between them is twenty thousand policies and four points. Either the board is badly wrong about the top of the range, or someone is buying cheap protection against a step change in California's residual insurance market. The contract settles on a published policy count, so there is no ambiguity about what resolves it—only about where it lands.

Ford, quarterly and annual. The Q3 board turns $15,024 and puts Above 490 thousand at 77.5% and Above 480 thousand at 95.0%, so the quarter is priced to land just under half a million vehicles. The annual board turns $13,284 and is the sharper of the two: Above 2 million at 72.5%, Above 2.05 million at 10.5%—sixty-two points across fifty thousand units.

Both settle long after the numbers are public: Q3 on January 29, 2027 and the annual board on January 31, 2028.

The two consumer-vehicle boards, and the one that inverts. Tesla's Q3 delivery ladder prices Above 450,000 at 49.5%, Above 465,000 at 47.0%, and Above 470,000 at 71.0%. A cumulative ladder cannot do that—every world above 470,000 is above 465,000—but with $797 of volume across seventeen rungs there is nobody to correct it.

Carvana's board turns $400 and is properly ordered: Above 200,000 at 93.0%, Above 210,000 at 86.5%, Above 215,000 at 54.0%, Above 220,000 at 5.5%. Thin does not have to mean broken.

Infrastructure, where the same template produces almost no market at all. South Carolina's port board is the only one of six that trades—$5,451, with $3,500 of it on Above 2.5 million TEUs at 11.0%. Savannah, Mobile, Baltimore, Virginia and New York/New Jersey are all listed and all at zero.

The NYC subway ridership board has taken nothing today and still carries 5,055 contracts, priced Above 4.2 million weekday riders at 88.5% and Above 4.3 million at 61.5%. A board with standing open interest and no flow is a position somebody opened and then stopped watching.

The California FAIR Plan board settles November 23 on the September 30 policy count. Ford's Q3 board settles January 29, 2027, Boeing's annual board January 31, 2028, South Carolina's ports February 7, 2027.

• The FAIR Plan's Above 740,000 rung at 3.5%, taking 58% of the board's volume. It is the closest thing to a traded wildfire-exposure contract in the US and it is priced as a tail.
• Boeing at Above 640 (68.5%) against Above 660 (37.5%). The implied full-year delivery number sits right between them, and it is the single most-traded operating metric on the exchange.
• Ford's 2.00/2.05 million cliff. Sixty-two points across fifty thousand vehicles is a very confident band for a number that will not be known for sixteen months.
• Whether Tesla's inverted ladder corrects. Above 470,000 marked twenty-four points over Above 465,000 is free money in principle and untouched in practice, because the whole board turns under $800 a day.
• The five port boards at zero. Kalshi has listed the template across six ports and only one of them has ever traded—a clean test of whether listing supply creates demand.