Combat sports: UFC and boxing

Canelo Alvarez against Christian Mbilli on October 31 is the busiest combat book on the page, $5,239. Canelo is 74.5%, and $3,388 of the day's money went to Mbilli at 25.5%.

Saturday's Joshua Edwards–Craig Lewis fight takes the place of Iglesias–Zaren, whose board has closed. Edwards is 95%, and $2,485 of its $2,537 went to Lewis at 4.5%.

The October 10 UFC Fight Night card has kept trading. Polymarket lists it fight by fight; the four moneylines here have taken $7,194 between them, up from $6,210, $2,370 of it on Otari Tanzilovi against Malcolm Wellmaker.

Polymarket's board on who holds the UFC middleweight title at the end of 2026 has Sean Strickland at 78.7%, down from 87.2%, with Nassourdine Imavov up to 6.4%, on $4,749.

The forward money is two boxing cards three weeks apart. Canelo vs Mbilli, October 31: 74.5% against 25.5% on $119,069 of open interest, the deepest forward book in combat sports. Edwards vs Lewis, Saturday night: 95% against 4.5% on $7,044; the underdog's leg took nearly all of today's $2,537.

The deepest forward book in combat sports, both sides. Mbilli is 25.5% on $3,388 today; Canelo is 74.5% on $1,850, with $79,992 of the book's open interest. The two legs sum to 100, a tight quote for a fight three weeks out.

UFC Fight Night, October 10. Polymarket lists the card as individual moneylines.

Allen vs Duncan has Brendan Allen at 52.5%, down from 53.5%, on $2,167. Bonfim vs Prado is $1,725, Ismael Bonfim 47.5%. Below them, Tanzilovi vs Wellmaker is the busiest at $2,370 and Souza vs Godínez $932. Four fights, $7,194 in total.

Otari Tanzilovi is 34.5% against Malcolm Wellmaker on $2,370, and Ketlen Souza 31.5% against Loopy Godínez on $932. Each contract is quoted on its first-named fighter, so Wellmaker and Godínez are the favorites.

Whether Trump attends UFC 333 is marked 2% on $12,731 today, against $107,077 of open interest, more standing paper than the whole October 10 card. It settles October 25. Beside it, Polymarket's middleweight title board for the end of 2026: Strickland 78.7%, Imavov 6.4%, Khamzat Chimaev 2.5%.

Edwards vs Lewis and the UFC Fight Night card settle on the night of October 10, the Trump attendance contract October 25, and Canelo vs Mbilli on November 1.

• Edwards at 95%, with nearly all of the day's money on Lewis.
• Whether the October 10 card keeps trading. $7,194 across four fights a day out, up from $6,210.
• Canelo at 74.5% with $119,069 of open interest, three weeks from the fight.
• Strickland at 78.7% on the middleweight title board, down eight points.