2027 College Football National Championship

Kalshi lists the 2026 college football season as five nested books—make the Playoff, reach the quarterfinal, reach the semifinal, reach the final, win it. A month into the season nearly all the trading is in the last one: the title board turned $520,209 today and the four round books $39,844 between them.

Nested books priced independently give you something rare: a round-by-round survival curve for every team, and a way to check the market against itself. Georgia, the favorite, prices 84.5% to make the Playoff, 69.5% to reach the quarterfinal, 51% the semifinal, 30.5% the final and 17.5% to win. Ohio State runs 75.5% / 70.5% / 49% / 30.5% / 15.5%. Notre Dame is the likeliest team to make the field, at 87.5%, and prices 12.5% to win it.

Before the season one of the teams spotlighted here was priced to reach the final more often than the semifinal. That has closed; see the section below.

The survival ladder. These three Multiples price each team to reach a specific round, so they do not sum to 100% and they can be read as a conditional chain. Divide any team's championship price by its finalist price and you get the market's implied probability that it wins a final it reaches:

• Georgia: 57%. The market's January team.
• Ohio State: 51%.
• Notre Dame: 42%. Texas: 40%.
• Miami: 35%. Priced as a team that gets there and loses.

Read across instead of down and a different story appears: Notre Dame is 87.5% to make the Playoff and 71.5% to reach the quarterfinal, the best of the five on both, but 12.5% to win it against Georgia's 17.5%. The market rates Notre Dame's regular season and doubts its January. The round books barely trade, $420 on the quarterfinal book and $602 on the semifinal book today, so read these ratios as quotes.

Before the season Texas Tech was priced to reach the final more often than the semifinal, 15% against 14.5%. In a bracket, reaching the final requires winning the semifinal, so the finalist number can never exceed the semifinal number.

It has closed. Texas Tech now prices 13.5% to reach the semifinal and 12.5% to reach the final, the right way round, after $2,756 traded on its finalist leg today. The semifinal leg did not trade.

The lesson stands. The flow in these Multiples concentrates on a handful of legs, and the untraded ones sit on quotes that are not always checked against the sibling book. Volume in a Multiple does not mean every leg is priced.

The Heisman book, $150,580 today. Jeremiah Smith leads at 23.5%, then Darian Mensah 18%, Kamario Taylor 15.5%, and Trinidad Chambliss and Jadan Baugh at 8% each. Before the season CJ Carr led this board at 12.5%; he is no longer among the top five.

The busiest leg is the third choice. Taylor took $42,761 against Smith's $25,662, and Baugh at 8% took $12,674, more than three times Mensah's $3,628 at 18%. The inverted relationship between price and volume that marked the preseason book is still there.

The national championship Categorical alongside the finalist Multiple. Georgia leads at 17.5%, then Ohio State 15.5%, Texas and Notre Dame 12.5% each and Miami 9.5%. Before the season Ohio State and Notre Dame shared the lead at 12.5% and Georgia was fifth at 9.5%.

The volume has moved to the top of the board: Ohio State took $177,782 and Texas $77,982 of the day's $520,209, with Georgia at $51,448. The finalist book is flatter than the outright: Texas 31%, Ohio State and Georgia 30.5%, Notre Dame 30%, Miami 27%.

The two deepest conference title races—the SEC and the Big Ten—which settle in early December. SEC: Georgia 34.5%, Texas 23.5%, Florida 12.5%, Alabama 11.5%, on $6,341. Big Ten: Ohio State 43.5%, Indiana 20.5%, Oregon 19.5%, on $23,499. The two national favorites lead their own conferences. The Big 12 and ACC races are one search away in the panel at the bottom.

• Georgia at 17.5%. Fifth on the board before the season, first now, and implied at 57% to win a final it reaches.
• Ohio State's flow. $177,782 of the title board's $520,209 in a day, at 15.5%.
• Same price, different path. Texas and Notre Dame both price 12.5% to win; Notre Dame is 87.5% to make the Playoff and Texas 82%.
• Miami is the market's regular-season team. 83.5% to make the Playoff, 9.5% to win, and an implied 35% in a final, the lowest of the leaders.
• The round books are quotes. The quarterfinal and semifinal books turned about $1,000 between them. Texas Tech's finalist price is back below its semifinal price.
• The Heisman's money is on the third choice. Kamario Taylor at 15.5% took more than Jeremiah Smith at 23.5%.
• The conference title games in early December are the next settlement any of these books will get.