2027 College Football National Championship

Kalshi lists the 2026 college football season as five nested books: make the Playoff, reach the quarterfinal, reach the semifinal, reach the final, win it. Nearly all the trading is in the last one: the title board turned $663,291 in the last day, and the four round books about $78,000 between them, $69,642 of it on the Playoff book.

Nested books priced independently give you something rare: a round-by-round survival curve for every team, and a way to check the market against itself. Georgia prices 97.5% to make the Playoff, 85.5% to reach the quarterfinal, 68.5% the semifinal, 46.5% the final and 28% to win. Notre Dame runs 95.5% / 82.5% / 51% / 32.5% / 18.5%. Alabama is 93.5% to make the field and 11.5% to win it.

The survival ladder. These three Multiples price each team to reach a specific round, so they do not sum to 100% and they can be read as a conditional chain. Divide any team's championship price by its finalist price and you get the market's implied probability that it wins a final it reaches:

• Georgia: 60%. Still the market's January team.
• Notre Dame: 57%.
• Miami: 48%. Texas: 46%. Alabama: 45%.

Read across instead of down and Miami has the steepest curve of the leaders: 88.5% to make the Playoff and 82% to reach the quarterfinal, but 43.5% to reach the semifinal and 20% the final. Georgia leads every round. The round books barely trade, under $2,500 each on the quarterfinal and semifinal books in the last day, so read these ratios as quotes.

Before the season Texas Tech was priced to reach the final more often than the semifinal, 15% against 14.5%. In a bracket, reaching the final requires winning the semifinal, so the finalist number can never exceed the semifinal number.

It stays closed. Texas Tech now prices 6.5% to reach the semifinal and 3% to reach the final, the right way round, on $50 of trading between the two legs, all of it on the finalist leg.

The lesson stands. The flow in these Multiples concentrates on a handful of legs, and the untraded ones sit on quotes that are not always checked against the sibling book. Volume in a Multiple does not mean every leg is priced.

The Heisman book turned $353,136 in the last day. Darian Mensah leads at 33.5%, then Jeremiah Smith at 26.5% and CJ Carr at 25.5%, up from 6.5% on November 1; Drew Mestemaker and Devon Dampier are 5.5% each.

The volume follows the leaders. Mensah took the most, $90,135, then Smith $55,255 and Carr $37,965. Dampier at 5.5% still drew $25,210 and Mestemaker $13,646: the long-shot legs trade well out of proportion to their prices.

The national championship Categorical alongside the finalist Multiple. Georgia leads at 28%, then Notre Dame 18.5%, Alabama 11.5%, Miami 9.5% and Texas 8.5%. On November 1 Georgia was 22.5% and Miami second at 15.5%; Indiana, then fourth at 8.5%, is now out of the top five on both the title and finalist books.

The volume is spread down the board: Miami took $62,873, Alabama $46,845 and Georgia $35,994. The finalist book reads in the same order: Georgia 46.5%, Notre Dame 32.5%, Alabama 25.5%, Miami 20%, Texas 18.5%.

The two deepest conference title races, the SEC and the Big Ten, which settle in early December. SEC: Georgia 56.5%, Alabama 25.5%, Texas 8.5%, Tennessee 5%, LSU 2%, on $7,530. Big Ten: Indiana 44%, UCLA 28%, Oregon 13%, Ohio State 6.5%, USC 5%, on $27,333, $21,895 of it on Ohio State. Georgia has firmed again in the SEC, and Ohio State, at 29.5% on November 1, is now fourth in the Big Ten. The Big 12 and ACC races are one search away in the panel at the bottom.

• Georgia at 28%. Nine and a half points clear of Notre Dame at 18.5%, and first in every round book.
• Georgia's January. Implied at 60% to win a final it reaches, the highest of the leaders; Notre Dame is at 57%.
• Alabama's climb. Third on the title board at 11.5%, and 25.5% in the SEC, up from 12% on November 1.
• Ohio State's slide. 6.5% in the Big Ten, fourth behind Indiana, UCLA and Oregon, and the busiest leg of that book.
• The round books are quotes. Under $2,500 a day on the quarterfinal and semifinal books.
• A three-way Heisman. Mensah 33.5%, Smith 26.5%, Carr 25.5%.
• The conference title games in early December are the next settlement any of these books will get, with the Playoff qualifiers book settling December 15.