College Football 2026 — game books, conferences and the Heisman

SMU lost to Florida St. on Sunday. Today SMU at 0.5% took $365,873 on Kalshi's national championship board—39% of the entire $928,545 that board turned, and three and a half times what the 12.5% favourite took.

It is not an isolated leg. Florida A&M at 0.5% has taken $448,753 ahead of Thursday's game at Miami, against $5,501 on Miami at 99.5%—an eighty-two to one split on the side the market prices at nothing. And on the Heisman board, Kamario Taylor at 0.5% took $300,063, the largest flow on a $1,125,047 market.

Three contracts, all priced at half a cent, $1,114,689 between them in a day. That is more than the combined volume of every live favourite on all three boards.

The likely mechanic is unwinding rather than conviction. SMU carries 693,609 contracts of open interest and Kamario Taylor 642,639, positions taken when both still had a case. A losing ticket sold back at half a cent registers as volume identically to a new bet. Read a half-cent leg topping a volume board as an exit until something proves otherwise.

The live slate, meanwhile, has emptied. The largest game book on the board is Rutgers at Boston College on Friday, at $4,692—down from the $18.4M SMU–Florida St. turned. Its total-points ladder has taken $68. Below: the title boards cross-exchange, the half-cent spotlight, Thursday's and Friday's games, the two ladders, the conference boards, and the Heisman.

The 2027 national championship boards, cross-exchange. Kalshi: 50 teams, 121.0% total, $928,545 today, Ohio St. the favourite at 12.5%. Polymarket: 16 teams, 106.0% total, $9,014 today, Oregon the favourite at 13.55%. Kalshi outtrades Polymarket a hundred to one and the two do not agree on who is in front—Kalshi has Oregon outside its top four, Polymarket has Ohio St. unlisted in its top six.

Two legs of Kalshi's title board. SMU is 0.5% and took $365,873 today—the largest single flow on the board by a factor of three. LSU is 10.5% and took $105,281 on 2,453,156 contracts of open interest.

SMU lost on Sunday. The board has repriced; the volume has not stopped. That is what a 693,609-contract position looks like on its way out.

Florida A&M at Miami settles 03:00 UTC Thursday and has turned $444,503—99.5% Miami, 0.5% Florida A&M, and $448,753 of the flow on the Florida A&M side. It is the largest game book on the slate and it is not a contest.

Beside it, Rutgers at Boston College, $4,692, the largest genuinely competitive game listed: Boston College 61.5%, Rutgers 39.5%, board summing to 101.0%. That is the whole live card this week.

The Rutgers–Boston College spread board turns $2,526 across 29 rungs, with "Boston College wins by over 3.5" at 47.5% holding $2,119 of it—84% of the board on one rung. The total-points ladder has taken $68 across nineteen rungs, and sixteen of those rungs show zero volume and zero open interest.

A $68 ladder still quotes: Over 53.5 at 52.5%, Over 54.5 at 48.0%. Those are model prices with nothing behind them.

The Big Ten board sums to 98.5%—Ohio St. 30.0%, Indiana 18.5%, Penn St. 6.5%—so the whole field is buyable for less than a dollar. The Big 12 sums to 95.0%, five points underround, led by BYU at 12.5%.

Both carry enormous stranded open interest on eliminated teams: Iowa at 2.5% holds 135,422 contracts, Nebraska at 1.5% holds 134,839, Colorado at 0.5% holds 177,781. Same story as the title board, one tier down.

Florida A&M at Miami settles 03:00 UTC Thursday and Rutgers at Boston College 02:30 UTC Saturday. The title, conference and Heisman boards all run to the postseason.

• Whether SMU's $365,873 a day at half a cent decays over the week. If it does, it was an unwind; if it holds, something else is going on in that contract.
• Kamario Taylor at 0.5% on the Heisman board, taking $300,063 against Darian Mensah's $141,657 at 14.0%. Same shape, and the largest single flow in the workspace.
• The Florida A&M leg. $448,753 on a 0.5% contract, three days before the game, is the cleanest example of the pattern on this page.
• The two underround conference boards at 98.5% and 95.0%. Buying every team in the Big 12 costs 95 cents to return a dollar.
• The Rutgers–Boston College total-points ladder at $68. It is the reminder that most of what these boards quote is not a market.