Climate and Hurricane Season 2026

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Kalshi's Isaias ladder now prices Category 3 or above at 99%, up from 94.5%, so the market treats Isaias as a major hurricane. The open question is one rung higher: Category 4 or above has fallen from 9.5% to 5%, and took $46,733, the busiest leg of a $111,448 day.

The season board followed. At least one major hurricane is 99%, and more than one is 27.5%, up from 24.5%. The season count still expects few storms: above four hurricanes is 7.5%.

September as the hottest on record is 5% into NOAA's print, which the board now settles on Saturday.

September 2026 as the hottest September on record trades 5%, on $696; it settles Saturday, October 10, at 10am ET, on NOAA's monthly print. This row carries the one contract.

The season as the market prices it. Above four hurricanes is 7.5%, above five 6% and above six 2%, on $1,152. On the major-hurricane board, above zero is 99% and above one 27.5%, on $18,725, $10,924 of it on above zero. The board now matches Isaias's own Category 3 rung at 99%. Both boards settle December 2.

Kalshi's category ladder for Isaias: Category 1, 2 and 3 or above at 99%, Category 4 or above 5% and Category 5 or above 1%, on $111,448. A day ago Category 4 was 9.5%. The day's money went to the top of the ladder: $46,733 on Category 4, $35,801 on Category 3 and $25,887 on Category 2.

The date board's gates are all at 99%, before October 15 through before December 1, on $5,462, $4,176 of it on the October 15 gate.

Beside it, the East Pacific board on which named storms become hurricanes: Polo, Rachel and Simon at 99%, Odalys 98%, and Trudy at 57%.

The Hawaii landfall contract and Kalshi's Oklahoma City temperature board.

A hurricane landfall in Hawaii before 2027 is 4.5%, on $574. Oklahoma City's October 9 board has turned $9,564, with 89° to 90° at 65.5% and 87° to 88° at 26%; it settles Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on the recorded high and then rolls to the next day.

The hurricane boards run to December 1. The September temperature contract settles October 10.

  • Category 4 or above at 5% on Isaias's ladder, down from 9.5%; Category 3 is 99%.
  • A major hurricane this season at 99% on the season board.
  • More than one major hurricane at 27.5%, up from 24.5%.
  • Above four hurricanes at 7.5%: the market still expects a short season.
  • Trudy at 57% on the East Pacific board.
  • September as the hottest on record at 5% into Saturday's print.