UK Politics 2026 — one leadership board, and no flow

The sitting Prime Minister leads the last UK leadership board. Andy Burnham, who replaced Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister in July, is 43.26% on Manifold's Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?, little changed from 43.67% at the last review. Nigel Farage is 22%, from 22.41%; Kemi Badenoch is 14.87%, from 14%, and Zack Polanski 2.6%.

It barely trades. The board shows no volume in the past day, so these prices are where it last traded, not an active market.

The rest of UK politics is quieter still. Polymarket's How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? holds $24,269 of open interest, down from $41,910, and turned $219 in a day, with 2 at 89.5% and 3 at 10.5%. Kalshi's by-election ladder holds $4,770 and is dormant. Manifold still prices Starmer serving a full term at 1%, a question his resignation has already answered.

The macro books are no busier. Kalshi's recession board prices the UK at 5.1%, down from 8.65%, and traded $14 in a day; UK nominal GDP holds $8,044 and did not trade. Neither is a political book.

This workspace documents a thin market. If Manifold delists the surviving board, there will be no UK leadership market on any supported exchange.

Manifold's Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election? is the only leadership board still resolving, and both panels below show it, with no volume in the past day: Andy Burnham 43.26%, Nigel Farage 22%, Kemi Badenoch 14.87%, Other 3.59% and Zack Polanski 2.6%.

Burnham's lead over Farage is about 21 points, where it stood at the last review, when the board read 43.67% to 22.41%.

Where the money actually is: Manifold's Starmer full-term binary, and the three legs of its Prime Minister board. Volume across all four is effectively nil.

Polymarket's prime-minister count board and Kalshi's by-election ladder are the other UK political markets on this page. Polymarket prices 2 prime ministers by end of 2027 at 89.5% on $24,269 of open interest, with 3 at 10.5%, and turned $219 in a day. Kalshi's ladder on the number of 2026 by-elections has At least 7 at 6%, down from 46.5% at the last review, At least 8 at 3% and At least 9 at 2.5%, and did not trade.

The UK's two Kalshi macro contracts. The global recession board, $34,366 of open interest, prices the United Kingdom at 5.1%, down from 8.65% and still its highest leg; it traded $14 in a day. UK nominal GDP holds $8,044 and did not trade.

The sitting Prime Minister leads a board that barely trades. Andy Burnham is 43.26% on Manifold's next-PM board and Nigel Farage 22%, both within half a point of the last review. The board shows no volume in the past day.

Almost nothing here trades. Polymarket's count board holds $24,269 of open interest, down from $41,910, and turned $219 in a day; Kalshi's by-election ladder is dormant at $4,770.

Two prime ministers by end of 2027 is 89.5% on Polymarket, and Manifold still prices a full Starmer term at 1%.

If the last Manifold board goes, this workspace has nothing left to track. That would be the cleanest available evidence that UK politics is not a viable event contract market on US-facing venues.