UK Politics 2026 — one leadership board, and no flow

The last UK leadership board has a new leader. On Manifold's Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election?, Andy Burnham is 39.7% and Nigel Farage 24.8%, from 30.37% when he led at the last review. Kemi Badenoch is 13.72%, from 9.06%, and Zack Polanski 2.96%.

It barely trades. The board shows effectively no volume today, so these prices are where it last traded, not an active market.

The rest of UK politics is still quiet. Polymarket's How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? holds $39,671 of open interest, from $24,028, with 2 at 87.5% and 3 at 12.5%, and traded nothing today. Kalshi's by-election ladder holds $4,938 and is dormant. Manifold prices Keir Starmer serving a full term at 1.14%.

The macro books are no busier. Kalshi's recession board prices the UK at 14.05%, and UK nominal GDP holds $7,945; neither traded today, and neither is a political book.

This workspace documents a thin market. If Manifold delists the surviving board, there will be no UK leadership market on any supported exchange.

Manifold's Who will be the next British Prime Minister following a General Election? is the only leadership board still resolving, and both panels below show it, with effectively no volume today: Andy Burnham 39.7%, Nigel Farage 24.8%, Kemi Badenoch 13.72%, Other 4.02% and Zack Polanski 2.96%.

Farage led this board at 30.37% at the last review; Burnham was not among the names this page quoted then.

Where the money actually is: Manifold's Starmer full-term binary, and the three legs of its Prime Minister board. Volume across all four is effectively nil.

Polymarket's prime-minister count board and Kalshi's by-election ladder are the other UK political markets on this page. Polymarket prices 2 prime ministers by end of 2027 at 87.5% on $39,671 of open interest; Kalshi's ladder has At least 6 at 99%, At least 7 at 37.5% and At least 8 at 12.5%. Neither traded today.

The UK's two Kalshi macro contracts. The global recession board, $34,595 of open interest, prices the United Kingdom at 14.05%, its highest leg; UK nominal GDP holds $7,945. Neither traded today.

The leader changed on a board that barely trades. Andy Burnham leads Manifold's next-PM board at 39.7%; Nigel Farage, at 30.37% at the last review, is 24.8%. The board shows effectively no volume today.

Nothing here trades. Polymarket's count board holds $39,671 of open interest, from $24,028, and turned nothing today; Kalshi's by-election ladder is dormant at $4,938.

Two prime ministers by end of 2027 is 87.5% on Polymarket, and Manifold prices a full Starmer term at 1.14%.

If the last Manifold board goes, this workspace has nothing left to track. That would be the cleanest available evidence that UK politics is not a viable event contract market on US-facing venues.