China 2026 — Taiwan, Xi and the Tariff Deal

Polymarket's US–China tariff agreement ladder resolved Yes at every date, and the page's trade question is now at what rate: the year-end board prices 5–15% at 89.5%, up from 87.5% at the last review.

Taiwan has edged lower again. Polymarket prices an invasion by the end of 2026 at 1.65%, by June 30, 2027 at 5.5% and by the end of 2027 at 8.5%; the first and last are down from 2.05% and 9.5%. Xi out before 2027 is 1.75%, from 3.15%. The commercial relationship holds its new pricing; the security question has drifted slightly calmer.

Four Polymarket binaries on one question. Invasion by June 30, 2027: 5.5%. By end of 2026: 1.65%. By end of 2027: 8.5%. Blockade in 2026: 2.5%. The end-of-2026 leg is the nearest Taiwan price and took $19,180 in a day, by far the most of the four; the blockade leg took $466, the end-of-2027 leg $367 and the June 2027 leg $75. The invasion legs are cleanly ordered at every horizon.

Manifold prices the timing as one Categorical distribution across nine windows rather than four binaries. It carries zero volume, so it is a shape to compare rather than a price. It puts 5.5% on 2027, level with Polymarket's June 2027 leg, 38.84% on not before 2050, 17.43% on 2035–2039 and 16.37% on 2030–2034.

Polymarket's board on the US tariff rate on China at December 31 prices 5–15% at 89.5%, 15–25% at 7.5% and under 5% at 1.7%. It did not trade in a day, on $3,223 of open interest, so these are standing quotes, but it is the only live read on what the deal is worth.

Trump, Putin and Xi seen together before 2027, 85.5% on Polymarket, down from 88% at the last review, on $5,159 in a day.

Xi Jinping out before 2027 prices 1.75%, down from 3.15% at the last review, on $5,052 of flow and $4,599,096 of open interest. The year-end tariff rate's 5–15% band prices 89.5%. The market has the deal done and Xi there to keep it.

December 31 settles the tariff-rate board, the three-way meeting and the end-of-2026 invasion and blockade legs.

• The 5–15% tariff band at 89.5%. It has firmed again on a book that did not trade in a day, so a single order can move it.
• The invasion-by-2026 leg at 1.65%, the nearest Taiwan price on the page and its busiest, and the June 2027 leg at 5.5%.
• Trump, Putin and Xi at 85.5%. The highest-priced diplomatic contract on the page, with under two months left to run.