China 2026 — Taiwan, Xi and the Washington Visit

Polymarket's US–China tariff agreement ladder has resolved Yes at every date—September 30, October 31 and December 31. It closed on a $46,446 final day. The Washington visit produced the trade deal the market had been pricing at 92% four days ago, and the page's trade question now shifts from whether to at what rate.

Taiwan did not move. Polymarket prices an invasion by September 30 at 0.15%, by the end of 2026 at 3.75% and by the end of 2027 at 11.5%. Xi out before 2027 is 3.65%. The summit re-priced the commercial relationship and left the security question where it was.

Four Polymarket binaries on one question at four horizons. Invasion by September 30: 0.15%. By end of 2026: 3.75%. By end of 2027: 11.5%. Blockade in 2026: 3.3%. The expiring September leg still took $50,314 today, the most of the four; the year-end and 2027 legs took about $24,000 each. The chain is cleanly ordered at every horizon.

Manifold prices the timing as one Categorical distribution across nine windows rather than four binaries. It carries zero volume and zero open interest, so it is a shape to compare rather than a price. It puts 1.9% on 2026 and 5.5% on 2027, close to Polymarket's chain, and 38.8% on not before 2050.

Left: Polymarket's board on the US tariff rate on China at December 31, the natural successor to the agreement ladder. It prices 5–15% at 77%, 15–25% at 12.5% and under 5% at 4.6%—a thin book at $254 today, but the only live read on what the deal is worth.

Right: the state-dinner guest list, $291 today. Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella and Elon Musk are all scored at the top; the list settles by October 8.

Left: Trump, Putin and Xi seen together before 2027—69% on Polymarket, $2,719 today. It replaces Manifold's Taiwan-mention board, whose settlement date has passed. Right: Dario Amodei at the state dinner. The midpoint is 1.1% and the last print 0.3%—the book has stopped expecting him.

Xi Jinping out before 2027 prices 3.65% on $21,875 of flow, against $4.0M of open interest—one of the deepest single contracts on the page. The year-end tariff rate's 5–15% band prices 77%. The market has the deal done and Xi there to keep it.

September 30 settles the near invasion leg; October 8 settles the guest list; December 31 settles the tariff-rate board.

• The 5–15% tariff band at 77%. Once the deal text is public, this board should either firm towards certainty or split. It is thin, so a single order can move it.
• The invasion-by-2026 leg at 3.75% once the September contract expires. It becomes the nearest Taiwan price on the page.
• Trump, Putin and Xi at 69%. The highest-priced diplomatic contract on the page, with three months left to run.