China 2026 — Taiwan, Xi and the Tariff Deal

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Polymarket's US–China tariff agreement ladder resolved Yes at every date, and the page's trade question is now at what rate: the year-end board prices 5–15% at 78.5%. The state-dinner guest list has settled and left the page.

Taiwan has not moved. Polymarket prices an invasion by the end of 2026 at 2.25%, by June 30, 2027 at 7.5% and by the end of 2027 at 11.5%. Xi out before 2027 is 2.65%. The summit re-priced the commercial relationship and left the security question where it was.

Four Polymarket binaries on one question. Invasion by June 30, 2027: 7.5%. By end of 2026: 2.25%. By end of 2027: 11.5%. Blockade in 2026: 4.6%. The end-of-2026 leg is the nearest Taiwan price and took $31,140 today, the most of the four; the blockade leg took $6,648, the end-of-2027 leg $3,173 and the June 2027 leg $63. The invasion legs are cleanly ordered at every horizon.

Manifold prices the timing as one Categorical distribution across nine windows rather than four binaries. It carries zero volume and zero open interest, so it is a shape to compare rather than a price. It puts 1.9% on 2026 and 5.5% on 2027, close to Polymarket's chain, and 38.8% on not before 2050.

Polymarket's board on the US tariff rate on China at December 31 prices 5–15% at 78.5%, under 5% at 8.5% and 15–25% at 7.5%. It was untraded today, but it is the only live read on what the deal is worth.

Trump, Putin and Xi seen together before 2027, 79.5% on Polymarket, up from 72.5%, on $119 today and $15,285 of open interest.

Xi Jinping out before 2027 prices 2.65% on $37,687 of flow, the busiest single contract on the page. The year-end tariff rate's 5–15% band prices 78.5%. The market has the deal done and Xi there to keep it.

December 31 settles the tariff-rate board, the three-way meeting and the end-of-2026 invasion and blockade legs.

  • The 5–15% tariff band at 78.5%. Once the deal text is public, this board should either firm toward certainty or split. It is thin, so a single order can move it.
  • The invasion-by-2026 leg at 2.25%, the nearest Taiwan price on the page, and the June 2027 leg at 7.5%.
  • Trump, Putin and Xi at 79.5%. The highest-priced diplomatic contract on the page, with under three months left to run.