Central banks beyond the Fed

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% on October 30 (Tokyo time), by an 8–1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata dissenting in favor of a hike to 1.5%. Its October boards have settled, and the page now shows the December decision: Kalshi has hike 25bps at 77% and maintain at 23.5%, and Polymarket has a 25bp increase at 76.5% and no change at 21.5%.

The ECB's December 17 board leans hike on both venues: Kalshi's hike 1–25bps is 84.5% and Polymarket's 25bp increase 85%.

The Bank of Canada's December 9 board leans hold: maintains rate is 73.5% and hike 25bps 28%, on $1,626 of daily flow and $61,061 of open interest.

With October's hold settled, both venues list the December decision, which Kalshi settles December 18. A 25bp hike is 77% on Kalshi and 76.5% on Polymarket; holding is 23.5% and 21.5%, and every other outcome is 2% or less. The books are still small but growing: Kalshi's turned $1,116 with $16,445 of open interest, $1,046 of the day on the hike, and Polymarket's $2,085, $833 of it on no change and $516 on the increase.

Left: maintain current rate at 23.5%, on $71 of the day and $9,140 of open interest, the outcome that settled October and now trails the hike by about three to one, though it holds more open interest than the hike.

Right: hike more than 25bps at 2%, with no trade in the past day and $293 of open interest. The day's flow sits on hike 25bps at 77%, which holds $6,553.

Kalshi's ECB widget shows the December 17 meeting: hike 1–25bps 84.5%, maintain 14.5%. It did not trade in the past day; open interest is $3,906, $1,727 of it on the hold and $1,383 on the hike.

Beside it, Polymarket's ECB widget has rolled past October to the February 2027 board: no change 82.5% and a 25 bps increase 15.5%, with every other outcome under 1.5%, on $5,924 of volume. For a second venue on December, Polymarket's December board further down prices a 25bp increase at 85%.

Polymarket's December Bank of Japan board, the same one as the anchor's right-hand chart, has a 25bp increase at 76.5% against no change at 21.5%. Beside it, December's ECB board has a 25bp increase at 85% against no change at 14%, on $1,066, $529 of it on the increase. Kalshi's December board is close, at 84.5% for a hike, and the hike leg here is up from 81.5% at the last review.

Canada's December 9 board leans hold. Maintains rate is 73.5%, up from 69.5%, on $549 of the day, against hike 25bps at 28%, on $494. Open interest is close to even: $29,380 on the hold and $25,673 on the hike.

Russia's December 18 board traded $901 in a day, all on maintain, now 79.5%; cut 1–25bps is 15%, and the other outcomes are 2.5% or less, on $4,298 of open interest.

South Africa's November 19 board has maintain at 79.5%, hike 1–25bps at 12% and hike more than 25bps at 10%. The day's $36 of volume came almost entirely on the larger hike, against $2,754 of open interest, and the quotes sum to 104.5%, so read them as thin marks.

South Africa decides November 19, Canada December 9, the ECB December 17, and the Bank of Japan and Russia December 18.

• The Bank of Japan's December hike at 77% and 76.5%. After the October 30 hold at 1.25%, both venues price a move in December; the books are growing, $1,116 and $2,085 in the past day.
• Canada at 73.5% hold, 28% hike for December. Flow split almost evenly, and open interest is close to even.
• The ECB's December hike at 84.5% and 85%. Polymarket's February 2027 board leans hold at 82.5%.
• South Africa's thin book. A hold leads at 79.5% on $36 of volume: marks, not a consensus.
• Russia's December board. Hold at 79.5%, with the day's $901 all on that outcome.