Central banks beyond the Fed

Three weeks ago the ECB's October 29 decision was a coin flip. It isn't now. Kalshi prices maintain at 91%, from 51%, against hike 1–25bps at 8.5%; Polymarket, on $25,604, has no change at 93.5%, from 49%, against a 25bp increase at 7.5%. The two venues broke the same way and sit within three points of each other.

The Bank of Japan, deciding the same week, has firmed further. Kalshi has maintain at 95% and Polymarket no change at 96%, from 77% and 82%. The busiest Kalshi leg is now hike 25bps at 5%, on $527, ahead of the 95% consensus leg at $191; Polymarket's second-busiest leg is its own 3.65% hike, on $664.

December still leans the other way. Polymarket's December ECB board puts a 25bp increase at 74.5%, up from 60%, and no change at 18.5%: a hike priced for the meeting after a hold.

Kalshi and Polymarket both list the October 29 decision. Hold is 95% on one and 96% on the other, from 77% and 82%; every hike leg is now priced at 5% or less on both.

Left: maintain current rate at 95%, the consensus, on $191 and $3,995 of open interest.

Right: hike more than 25bps at 1%, from 3%, with nothing traded in a day but $4,750 of open interest—still more standing position than the outcome the board expects. The buying has stopped; the positions haven't closed. The day's flow went to hike 25bps at 5% instead, on $527.

Kalshi: maintain 91%, hike 1–25bps 8.5%, on $5,370 and $4,597 of open interest. Polymarket: no change 93.5%, 25bp increase 7.5%, on $18,349 and $7,172 of the day's volume.

Four quotes that sat within two points of an even split at the last review now agree on a hold. Polymarket's board turned $25,604 in a day, the busiest on this page.

Polymarket's October Bank of Japan board, no change at 96%, beside the ECB one meeting further out. December's ECB board has a 25bp increase at 74.5% against no change at 18.5%—so a hold in October is priced to give way to a hike by year end.

South Africa's board is now its November 19 meeting, and it has no real market yet. Maintain current rate is quoted at 56%, but cut more than 25bps, hike 1–25bps and hike more than 25bps are each quoted near 42%, nothing has traded in a day and the whole board holds $401 of open interest. The quotes sum to far more than 100%; read them as placeholders, not a forecast.

Russia on October 23 has moved from a three-way to a hold: maintain 86.5%, from 58%, against cut 1–25bps at 13%. Canada on October 28 has maintain at 81.5%, from 65%, against hike 25bps at 20%, on $6,845 of daily flow and $95,036 of open interest.

Russia decides October 23, Canada October 28, the ECB and the Bank of Japan both October 29, and South Africa November 19.

• The ECB at 91% and 93.5% for a hold. The coin flip broke and the two venues broke together; the question now is whether either drifts back before the meeting.
• December's ECB at 74.5% for a hike, against an October board that has settled on a hold. The path past the next meeting is priced as firmly as the meeting itself.
• The Bank of Japan's 1% tail still holding more open interest than its 95% consensus. $4,750 against $3,995, with nothing traded on it in a day: positions waiting to expire, not fresh buying.
• South Africa's November board filling in. Every leg is a thin quote on $401 of open interest; the first real trades will say more than today's prices.
• Canada's legs sum to 105.5%. Thin two-sided quotes on $95,036 of standing interest; the arithmetic is a liquidity artifact, not an arbitrage.