California Governor 2026

Kalshi's California governor book is down to two names: Xavier Becerra at 96.75% and Steve Hilton at 3.3%.

The price says the race is over; the flow goes the other way. Hilton's leg took $237,971 of Kalshi's $294,820 day, 81% of it, against $56,850 on Becerra. Polymarket shows the same thing at smaller size: $38,674 of $40,956 on Hilton at 4.55%, 94% of the book. The price has not followed. Hilton was 3.6% on Kalshi three weeks ago and is 3.3% now.

Volume has climbed with five weeks to go. Kalshi's book has quadrupled since mid-September, from $72,371 a day, and Polymarket's is up tenfold from $4,167. Kalshi is still the deeper venue here, about seven to one.

All three venues agree on the call: Becerra 96.75% on Kalshi, 95.65% on Polymarket, 96.1% on Manifold's play-money book. Election Day is November 3, and the two ballot measures below are the questions actually in doubt in California this cycle.

Kalshi's two-name book next to Polymarket's longer list, which still quotes Rick Caruso, Alex Padilla and Katie Porter at 0.1% each. Same call, about a point apart on the favorite.

The favorite on each venue: 96.75% on Kalshi, 95.65% on Polymarket. About a point apart, and between them they took $59,087, a quarter of what Hilton's Kalshi leg took alone.

The other side. Kalshi: 3.3%, $237,971 traded. Polymarket: 4.55%, $38,674 traded. A point and a quarter apart on price, and on both venues the long shot is the busier leg by a wide margin.

What is actually in doubt on the California ballot. The billionaire wealth tax measure is priced at 33.5% to pass, on $12,612, and the voter ID initiative at 31.5%, on $456. Both are closer questions than a top-of-ticket race the market has called at 96%. The wealth tax book is the only one of the two with real flow; read the voter ID quote as indicative.

Kalshi's board on which states redistrict before the midterms prices each state on its own, so the legs do not sum to 100%; read it a row at a time. The top of the board is near certainty: Tennessee 98.5%, California 97.8%, Ohio 97.75%, Texas 97.5%, Louisiana 97%. The book turned $150 and settles November 1. Beside it, Manifold's play-money book on the next governor: Becerra 96.1%, Hilton 2.7%.

• The flow on Hilton. 81% of Kalshi's day and 94% of Polymarket's bought a leg priced under 5%. It has not moved the price, which means the other side is willing to keep selling it.
• Volume into November. Kalshi's book has quadrupled in three weeks. With a 93-point gap between two names, any repricing shows up on the Hilton leg first.
• The wealth tax at 33.5%. The most traded open question on the page, $12,612 a day.
• Voter ID at 31.5% on $456: a thin quote, a range more than a level.
• Redistricting settles November 1, two days before the election, with California at 97.8%.