Bitcoin Short-Horizon Books 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Bitcoin has rallied from around $81,300 to around $85,000 since Saturday, and the day boards have followed it up. Kalshi's cumulative ladder puts the coin flip at $85,000 or above at 55% and $85,250 or above at 47%, on $1,307,237 of volume and $618,850 of open interest. Polymarket's day board turned $1,547,294.

The monthly touch board has already paid the move. Polymarket's ↑ 85,000 in September now sits at 99.9% and took $296,559 of the board's $1,118,483 day. ↑ 90,000 is 40%, and ↑ 100,000 at 4.2% took $105,046—the second-busiest rung, on the cheapest price anywhere on it.

Both boards ask where bitcoin closes today. Polymarket settles at noon ET; Kalshi settles at 5pm EDT, five hours later, which is why the two ladders can disagree late in the session without either being wrong.

Left is 86,000 at 23.9%, which took $202,856. Right is 84,000 at 83.9%, the busiest rung on Polymarket's day board at $266,235. Between them they are 30% of the day and they bracket where the market thinks noon lands.

Polymarket's categorical board puts 60% on 84,000–86,000 and 24% on 86,000–88,000, across a $117,244 day. Kalshi's range ladder splits the same space into $250 buckets, with $85,000 to $85,249.99 and $85,250 to $85,499.99 tied on top at 9%—a flat top on a thin $28,867 book.

Polymarket's direction contract prints 99% for up on $107,416. The session's direction is not in doubt; the level is.

The day boards ask where bitcoin closes; the touch boards ask whether it ever prints a level. A strike can settle no on the close and still have been touched hours earlier.

The new weekly board for September 21–27 opened on $121,685: ↑ 86,000 is 84%, ↑ 88,000 47%, ↑ 90,000 21%, and ↓ 80,000 22%.

Polymarket's day board settles at noon ET and Kalshi's five hours later. The weekly touch board settles September 28 and the September board at month end.

  • $85,000 as the line. Kalshi's coin flip sits on it; a close either side decides most of today's ladder.
  • The $100,000 rung. $105,046 at 4.2% with nine days of September left is the cheap-strike pattern again, one rung further out.
  • The 90,000 gap. 40% to touch this month against 21% this week.