Bitcoin Short-Horizon Books 2026

Kalshi's day boards price the 5pm ET close on Friday, November 13. The ladder has turned about $2.35 million in 24 hours; its range board, in $500 buckets, leads with $69,000 to 69,499.99 at 15.5%, then $69,500 to 69,999.99 at 14.5% and $70,000 to 70,499.99 at 13.5%, on $84,732.

Polymarket's day boards price the noon ET print the same day, five hours earlier: 70,000 is 27.95%, the rung nearest even, and 68,000 89.45%; the categorical board puts 61.35% on $68,000 to $70,000 and 24.5% on $70,000 to $72,000, and the direction contract is 3.85% for up.

Polymarket's week board, for November 9 to 15, has ↓ 66,000 at 14.55%, ↑ 74,000 at 6.45% and ↓ 64,000 at 4.75%.

Left, Kalshi's ladder asks where bitcoin closes Friday, November 13, at 5pm ET, on about $2.35 million in the past day with $1.72 million open; its lowest listed rungs, $63,500 or above through $65,500 or above, sit at 97.5% to 98.5%, the near-certain bottom of the ladder, and the open question sits on rungs further up, near the range board's center around $69,000 to $70,500. Right, Polymarket's ladder asks about the noon ET print the same day, five hours before Kalshi's: 66,000 is 97.95%, 68,000 89.45%, 70,000 27.95%, 72,000 2.9% and 74,000 0.25%, on $888,202. 70,000 is the rung nearest even: the ladder leans toward a print between $68,000 and $70,000, with $70,000 itself a bit better than one in four.

Left, 72,000 for Friday, November 13, at noon ET is 2.9%, on $96,851 in the past day; the ladder has moved below it. Right, 70,000 is 27.95%, on $143,389, the rung nearest even and the busier of the two. Together they bracket the print: little chance above $72,000, and a bit better than one in four above $70,000. 66,000 is the ladder's busiest listed rung, at $147,137.

Left, Polymarket's categorical board for the noon ET print on Friday, November 13, $76,036 in the past day: 68,000-70,000 leads at 61.35%, then 70,000-72,000 at 24.5%, <68,000 11.55%, 72,000-74,000 2.35% and 80,000-82,000 0.9%; 72,000-74,000 took the most trade, $20,843. The two buckets either side of $70,000 hold 85.85% between them. Right, Kalshi's range board for 5pm ET the same day, in $500 buckets, $84,732 in the past day: $69,000 to 69,499.99 leads at 15.5%, then $69,500 to 69,999.99 14.5%, $70,000 to 70,499.99 13.5%, $68,500 to 68,999.99 12.5% and $70,500 to 70,999.99 8.5%; $70,000 to 70,499.99 took the most, $3,587. The five leaders span $68,500 to $71,000 and hold 64.5% between them. The two boards settle five hours apart on the same day, so they are not a cross-exchange comparison of the same print.

Polymarket's direction contract for Friday, November 13, prices 3.85% for up, on $59,199 in the past day: it asks whether Friday's noon ET print beats Thursday's. The book leans heavily toward down; it settles at noon ET November 13.

The day boards ask where bitcoin closes; the touch boards ask whether it ever prints a level. Left, Kalshi's ladder on when bitcoin next crosses $100,000: before December 2026 1% and before January 2027 5.5%, on $49,164, $35,951 of it on the December rung. Right, Polymarket's week board for November 9 to 15, $640,147 in the past day, settling at midnight ET at the end of November 15: the leading listed rungs are ↓ 66,000 at 14.55%, ↑ 74,000 6.45%, ↓ 64,000 4.75%, the busiest listed rung at $126,505, ↑ 76,000 2.45% and ↓ 62,000 2.05%. ↓ 70,000 and ↓ 68,000 no longer appear among the listed leaders. With the day boards centered near $69,000 to $70,000, the board prices a further dip to $66,000 at about one in seven and a print at $74,000 at about one in sixteen.

• November 13 at noon ET. Polymarket's day boards settle, with 70,000 at 27.95%, 68,000 at 89.45%, the categorical board's $68,000 to $70,000 bucket at 61.35%, and the up contract at 3.85%.
• November 13 at 5pm ET. Kalshi's day boards settle; the range board leads with $69,000 to $69,499.99 at 15.5% and $69,500 to $69,999.99 at 14.5%.
• Through November 15. Polymarket's week board settles at midnight ET, with ↓ 66,000 at 14.55% and ↑ 74,000 at 6.45%.
• $100,000 by year end at 5.5% on Kalshi, with before December 2026 at 1%; the countdown above runs to that ladder's January 1, 2027 settlement.