Ballon d'Or 2026

Three venues price the 2026 Ballon d'Or, and in three weeks the favorite has changed on every one of them. Lamine Yamal is 49.8% on Polymarket, 48.5% on Kalshi and 47.6% on Manifold; Harry Kane is 43.5%, 45.5% and 44%. In mid-September Kane was at 60% or more on all three and Yamal was 15.5% to 18.8%. It is now a two-name race, and the two names hold more than 90% of each book.

The money has moved to the top with the price. Polymarket turned $547,216, nearly three times its September day: Kane took $81,174 and Yamal $77,278. Kalshi turned $192,233, four times its September day. There the busiest leg is still a longshot, Lionel Messi at 4% with $59,944, then Kylian Mbappé at 4% with $38,088, Yamal $35,584 and Kane $27,294.

Kalshi's open interest has not caught up with the price: Kane holds 1.36 million contracts, Messi 1.25 million, Mbappé 1.04 million and Yamal 1.01 million. The standing position is still largest on the former favorite.

The ceremony is expected in late October. Both real-money books carry a January 1, 2027 settlement date—a listing date, not a view on when the award is handed out.

The full field on each real-money venue. Yamal and Kane hold 93.3% of Polymarket's book and 94% of Kalshi's. Kalshi's quotes on the names behind them read high: Mbappé and Messi at 4% each, against 2.75% and 2.05% on Polymarket.

Kane's leg on each venue. 43.5% on Polymarket against 45.5% on Kalshi, down from 61% and 63% three weeks ago. He was the favorite on every venue then; he is three to six points behind Yamal now. The two exchanges are still two points apart on him, as they were in September.

The two longshot legs this page has tracked. Messi is 2.05% on Polymarket, where he took $26,403, and 4% on Kalshi, where his $59,944 made him the busiest leg on the board. Mbappé is 4% on Kalshi on $38,088, and 2.75% on Polymarket on $48,199. In September the two took nearly half of each venue's day; on Polymarket that share has fallen to about 14%, while on Kalshi it is still 51%.

The name that moved. Lamine Yamal is 49.8% on Polymarket and 48.5% on Kalshi, up from 15.5% and 18% three weeks ago. Manifold has him at 47.6%. The two real-money venues agree within a point and a half on the new favorite, and none of the three has him at even odds yet.

Manifold's play-money read on the same field, next to Kalshi's Premier League title board. Manifold has Yamal at 47.6% and Kane at 44%, the same order as the real-money books. The Premier League board has Arsenal at 61.5% and Manchester City at 19.5%; its busiest leg today was Brighton at 2.5%, $17,231 of $26,647.

• The favorite changed. Kane at 61/63/60 in mid-September; Yamal at 49.8/48.5/47.6 now. Neither is above 50%, and the two hold more than 90% of every book.
• Three to six points. Yamal's lead is 6.3 points on Polymarket and 3 on Kalshi. The venue with the larger book has the larger gap.
• Kane's 1.36 million contracts of Kalshi open interest. Still the largest position on the board, now on the second choice. If it unwinds before the ceremony the price will move more than the news does.
• Messi at 4% on Kalshi took $59,944. The tail-heavy flow persists there; on Polymarket it has faded as the top two took the volume.
• Kalshi's tail reads high. Messi and Mbappé at 4% each against 2% to 3% on Polymarket. Compare before treating a Kalshi longshot quote as a probability.
• The ceremony, expected in late October. A two-name race settles on the night.