Alaska Senate 2026

Alaska's Senate seat is priced as a Democratic pickup. Mary Peltola, the former congresswoman, is 70.5% on Kalshi and 70.5% on Polymarket against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 29.5% and 27.5%. Manifold's play-money book agrees at 72%.

On Kalshi the flow runs the other way. The party board turned $29,333 in a day, and the Republican leg took $26,136 of it; that leg also holds 819,429 contracts of open interest to the Democratic leg's 383,355. Polymarket's $27,045 split more evenly, $15,446 on Sullivan and $11,599 on Peltola.

The first round is the open question. Alaska's general election is ranked-choice, and Kalshi's vote-share board prices Peltola at least 50% in the first round at 44.5% and at least 48% at 71.5%. As priced, a Peltola win runs through the later rounds more often than through a first-round majority.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row above, Kalshi's party board and Polymarket's candidate board. Second row, Manifold and Kalshi's person board, which prices Peltola at 71% and Sullivan at 29.5% on $7,049 and lists a second Sullivan, Daniel J., at 1%. Below, the favorite's leg on each exchange: the Democratic leg at 70.5% on Kalshi and Peltola at 70.5% on Polymarket. The four books sit within a point and a half of each other on Peltola.

The margin board. Kalshi buckets the final margin by candidate: Peltola by 0–3 24%, Sullivan by 0–3 22%, Peltola by 3–6 17%, Peltola by 6–9 11.5%, on $941. The two narrowest buckets hold 46% between them.

Peltola's first-round share. 85% to reach 46%, 71.5% to reach 48%, 44.5% to reach 50%, 25% to reach 52%, on $200. Sullivan's first-round board has him at least 44% at 43.5%.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books: turnout, the round count, each candidate's vote share and the governor's race.

• Alaska Division of Elections — The official election calendar, candidate lists and voter information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Alaska Division of Elections: Election Results — Election night results and the ranked-choice tabulation, posted until the results are certified.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Alaska - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.
• Ballotpedia: United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 — The candidates, the top-four primary results and how the ranked-choice general election works.

The governor-Senate combo. Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep of both Alaska races at 64.5%, a Republican sweep at 16.5%, a Democratic governor with a Republican senator at 13.5% and the reverse at 6%, on $1,502.

The reddest state to elect a Democratic senator board has Texas at 36.5%, Kansas 18.5% and North Carolina 11%, with Alaska at 8%. Kalshi's closest-race board gives Alaska 7.75%, and its within-five-points board prices Alaska at 60%.

• Kalshi's Republican leg. $26,136 of a $29,333 day at 29.5%, and more than twice the open interest of the favorite's leg. If the price moves before November 3, it shows here first.
• 50% in the first round at 44.5%. The winner books call the race; the first-round board is where ranked-choice comes in.
• The 0–3 buckets. 24% for Peltola and 22% for Sullivan on Kalshi's margin board.
• The sweep at 64.5%. The combo ties the Senate race to the governor's race.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles November 4; Kalshi's person board November 10 and its party board January 4.