Alaska Senate 2026

Alaska's Senate seat is still priced as a Democratic pickup. Mary Peltola, the former congresswoman, is 75.5% on Kalshi's party board and 74.5% on Polymarket against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at 25.5% on both, a point firmer than ten days ago. Manifold's play-money book, at 92% then, has come back to 72%, in line with the real-money venues.

The flow has moved to Sullivan on Kalshi. The party board turned $44,318, seven times its last measured day, and $41,599 of it went to the Republican leg; the Democratic leg took $2,606 and the price still edged up. Polymarket's $17,294 split $9,681 on Peltola and $7,613 on Sullivan.

The first round has softened. Alaska's general election is ranked-choice. Kalshi's vote-share board, untraded today, now prices Peltola reaching at least 46% in the first round at 78% and at least 48% at 48%, down from 85.5% and 69%. As priced, a Peltola win runs through the later rounds more often than through a first-round majority.

Election: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Top row above, Kalshi's party board and Polymarket's candidate board. Second row, Manifold and Kalshi's person board, which prices Peltola at 74.5% and Sullivan at 26.5% on $3,787 and lists a second Sullivan, Daniel J., at 1%. Below, the favorite's leg on each exchange: the Democratic leg at 75.5% on Kalshi and Peltola at 74.5% on Polymarket. All four books now sit within four points of each other on Peltola, Manifold's 72% the lowest.

The margin board has a new leader. Kalshi buckets the final margin by candidate: Peltola by 3–6 26.5%, Peltola by 0–3 21.5%, Sullivan by 0–3 19%, Peltola by 6–9 14.5% and Sullivan by 3–6 8.5%, on $1,073; $519 of it went to the Peltola 3–6 bucket.

Peltola's first-round share. 78% to reach 46%, 62.5% to reach 47% and 48% to reach 48%, with no trades today.

Below them, the primary sources for the race and Kalshi's list of related books: turnout, the round count, each candidate's vote share and the governor's race.

• Alaska Division of Elections — The official election calendar, candidate lists and voter information for the November 3, 2026 general election.
• Alaska Division of Elections: Election Results — Election night results and the ranked-choice tabulation, posted until the results are certified.
• 2026 Election United States Senate - Alaska - FEC.gov — Explore current and historic federal campaign finance data on the new fec.gov. Look at totals and trends, and see how candidates and committees raise and spend money. When you find what you need, export results and save custom links.
• Ballotpedia: United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026 — The candidates, the top-four primary results and how the ranked-choice general election works.

The governor-Senate combo. Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep of both Alaska races at 71%, a Democratic governor with a Republican senator at 14%, a Republican sweep at 12.5% and the reverse split at 1.5%, on $5,851; $5,057 of it went to the Republican sweep.

The reddest state to elect a Democratic senator board has Texas at 27.5%, Kansas at 25%, North Carolina at 15% and South Carolina at 13.5%, with Alaska at 10%, on $2,462.

• Kalshi's Sullivan leg. $41,599 of a $44,318 day at 25.5%, and the price did not follow. If it moves before November 3, it shows there first.
• The first-round board at 48% to reach 48%. Down from 69% ten days ago, on no trades today. The winner books call the race; this board is where ranked-choice comes in.
• The margin board's center. Peltola by 3–6 at 26.5% leads, with the two 0–3 buckets at 21.5% and 19%.
• The sweep at 71%. The combo ties the Senate race to the governor's race, and its money went to the Republican sweep.
• Settlement. Polymarket's board settles on the November 3 result; Kalshi's person board November 10 and its party board January 4.