AI Model Market Share

Last week's boards have settled and Kalshi has listed the next set, running to October 5. Read off the quotes, DeepSeek sits near 25.7%, Google near 19.3%, Qwen near 6.2%, Tencent between 4.9% and 5.7%, and Anthropic near 2.5%. Five ladders turned $82,527 in their first day against $63,128 of open interest. There is still no OpenAI board.

Tencent's is the busiest ladder, and its heaviest rung is the safe one: Above 3.5% at 82% took $10,501. Anthropic's Above 2.5% at 44% took $9,954, the one heavy ticket on the page sitting right at the money.

These ladders are cumulative: each contract asks whether a lab's share finishes above a threshold, so the level where the ladder crosses fifty cents is the market's estimate. All six settle together on October 5. Anthropic sits on the left, Google on the right.

DeepSeek and Qwen pair first, then Tencent against Z.ai—which has listed a ladder but not traded it, so read it as a placeholder rather than a price.

DeepSeek's Above 25.7% at 48% and Google's Above 19.3% at 54% are the rungs closest to even money on the two largest shares here. Between them they carry the page's central question: whether the gap between the leading Chinese and American models moves this week.

All six ladders settle on October 5 and roll weekly—a week-over-week series on model traffic share, quoted rather than estimated.

• DeepSeek near 25.7% against Google near 19.3%. A gap of about six points, last week and this.
• No OpenAI ladder exists, so the shares sum to roughly 59% and the remainder is everything Kalshi does not quote. Do not read these as a complete market.
• Tencent's safe-rung flow. $10,501 on Above 3.5% at 82% is the biggest ticket on the page.
• Z.ai's empty ladder. Listed, unquoted, untraded.