AI Model Market Share

All four of Kalshi's weekly share ladders have rolled to new books that settle Sunday, November 22 at 11:59pm ET. None has traded yet: the DeepSeek, OpenAI, Google and Anthropic ladders show no volume and no open interest, and nearly every listed rung is quoted at 50%, an opening placeholder rather than an estimate. The one exception is DeepSeek's Above 31.2%, quoted at 60.5% with no trades.

Where the strikes sit. DeepSeek's listed rungs run from Above 27.8% to Above 31.2%; OpenAI's from Above 17.4% to Above 19.1%; Google's from Above 10.5% to Above 14.3%; Anthropic's from Above 4.8% to Above 5.6%.

No estimate yet. A ladder's estimate is where its prices cross fifty cents, and with untraded rungs at 50% none of the four crosses anywhere. The estimates appear once rungs trade. Qwen, Tencent and Z.ai have no weekly books on the page.

Each contract asks whether a lab's share of measured model traffic finishes above a threshold, so the level where the ladder crosses fifty cents is the market's estimate. All four ladders settle Sunday, November 22 at 11:59pm ET. Anthropic sits on the left, its listed rungs running from Above 4.8% to Above 5.6%; Google on the right, from Above 10.5% to Above 14.3%. Both are untraded, with every rung at an opening 50%, so neither shows a crossing yet.

DeepSeek on the left, its listed rungs running from Above 27.8% to Above 31.2%; OpenAI on the right, from Above 17.4% to Above 19.1%. Neither ladder has traded since the roll. Every OpenAI rung is quoted at 50%; DeepSeek's are too except Above 31.2% at 60.5%, an untraded quote above its lower rungs that a cumulative ladder can't hold once it trades.

The spotlight now sits on the lowest listed rung of each ladder: Above 27.8% on DeepSeek and Above 10.5% on Google, both quoted at 50% with no trades and no open interest. Those are opening placeholders, not estimates, and they say nothing about either lab's share until the ladders trade.

• First trades. All four ladders are untraded, with rungs on opening quotes; the first trades set each lab's estimate.
• Where the strikes start. DeepSeek's at Above 27.8%, OpenAI's at 17.4%, Google's at 10.5% and Anthropic's at 4.8%.
• The spotlight rungs. DeepSeek's Above 27.8% and Google's Above 10.5% are each ladder's lowest listed strike, so they may sit well away from where the ladder ends up crossing.
• Sunday, November 22 at 11:59pm ET. All four ladders settle.
• The ladders roll weekly. Qwen, Tencent and Z.ai have no weekly books on the page; if Kalshi lists them, they come back on the next refresh.