AI Model Market Share

All four ladders have rolled to the week of October 12, settling October 19. Read off where each ladder crosses fifty cents: DeepSeek near 22.6%, OpenAI near 17.9%, Google near 17.8%, Anthropic between 2.5% and 2.6%.

DeepSeek opens the week back above 22%. Last week's ladder priced it under its lowest rung of 22.0%; this week's coin flip is Above 22.6% at 50.5%, and DeepSeek is again the busiest ladder at $65,948.

Google opens well below last week. Its coin flip was near 19.5% a week ago and is Above 17.8% at 51.5% now, level with OpenAI, whose Above 17.8% is 53.5%. OpenAI's ladder turned $24,629, Anthropic's $18,633 and Google's $4,162.

Qwen, Tencent and Z.ai still have no weekly books listed, so they stay off the page.

Each contract asks whether a lab's share of measured model traffic finishes above a threshold, so the level where the ladder crosses fifty cents is the market's estimate. All four ladders cover the week of October 12. Anthropic sits on the left, Above 2.5% at 64% and Above 2.6% at 37.5%; Google on the right.

DeepSeek on the left: Above 21.9% at 80% is its busiest rung shown, on $10,794, and Above 22.4% is 64.5%. OpenAI on the right, its coin flip between Above 17.8% (53.5%) and Above 18.1% (45.5%), with Above 16.5% at 84.5% the busiest rung at $6,028.

Above 22.6% on DeepSeek trades at 50.5%, on $8,290: the market's estimate for the week sits on that rung. Above 17.8% on Google trades at 51.5%, on $732. If both hold, DeepSeek finishes the week close to five points clear of Google.

• The top spot. DeepSeek near 22.6% against OpenAI and Google near 17.8% is a wider gap than last week's books closed on.
• Second place. OpenAI and Google open within a tenth of a point of each other.
• Anthropic sits between Above 2.5% (64%) and Above 2.6% (37.5%).
• October 19. All four ladders settle that morning; last week's boards settle October 12.
• The ladders roll weekly. Kalshi has not relisted Qwen, Tencent or Z.ai; if it does, they come back on the next refresh.