AI Milestones 2026—AGI, Millennium Prize and releases

Kalshi has relisted its OpenAI Astra (6.1) release ladder, and Polymarket's Sol (6.1+) board has settled, so the release pair on this page is now Astra on both venues. Kalshi prices before October 30 at 21.5% and before November 13 at 48%; Polymarket prices by October 31 at 23% and by December 31 at 88.5%, on $4,113 and $17,591 of daily volume.

The Manifold anchor has come down hard. The Navier-Stokes contract—will Anthropic announce a solution before its IPO—sits at 6.1%, half the 12.2% it held when this page was last rewritten, on $1,727 today. It settles October 31.

The multi-year boards frame it. Kalshi's Millennium Prize board: before 2028 7.0%, before 2029 28.8%, before 2030 61.2%, before 2035 82.7%, and $1,491 of its $1,620 day went to the before 2027 rung at 1.9%. The AGI pair: Kalshi's OpenAI achieves AGI before 2027 at 14.5% against Polymarket's announces before 2027 at 18.0%.

The Manifold anchor and its broader sibling. The Navier-Stokes contract settles October 31 and asks a narrower question than the others: not whether an AI solves the problem, but whether Anthropic announces it, before an IPO. It is 6.1% on $1,727 today. The sibling—AI solves another Millennium problem, besides Navier-Stokes, before September 15, 2027—prices 74%.

Manifold prices an AI solving a Millennium problem before 2030 at 93.9%; Kalshi's ladder puts the next prize being awarded before 2027 at 1.9% and before 2030 at 61.2%. Solving and awarding are different events separated by the Clay Institute's two-year publication requirement, which is most of the gap—but not obviously all of it.

Polymarket asks whether OpenAI announces AGI before 2027 (18.0%); Kalshi asks whether OpenAI achieves it (14.5%). Both resolve on public statements in practice. Kalshi's ladder steps to 47.5% before 2028 and 62.5% before 2030, on $387k of open interest.

Left: Kalshi's relisted Astra ladder: before October 9 at 2.5%, October 23 19.5%, October 30 21.5%, November 6 36%, November 13 48%, on $4,113. Right: Polymarket's Astra (6.1+) board: October 9 4.95%, October 23 15%, October 31 23%, December 31 88.5%, on $17,591. Both slope properly now, and they agree within two points at the end of October.

Polymarket's Luna (6.1+) ladder—November 30 at 81%, December 31 at 89%, on $82—beside Kalshi's any-company AGI board, which turned $13,865 today. Before October 1, 2027 at 49.5% took $743, while before 2030 at 81.5% and before 2031 at 82.5% are quoted on little or nothing. Beyond 2028 each rung sits within a few points of the next.

The Navier-Stokes contract settles October 31 at 6.1%, against Manifold's own 74% that AI solves a different Millennium problem by September 2027 and 93.9% for any by 2030. The market doubts the specific announcement, not the capability.

Astra 6.1 on two venues, within two points. Kalshi's before October 30 at 21.5% and Polymarket's by October 31 at 23%. The steep step is early November—Kalshi goes from 21.5% to 48% across two weeks.

The AGI pair is the best-priced thing on this page—14.5% on Kalshi and 18.0% on Polymarket for 2027, with Kalshi's 2028 rung at 47.5%.

Prize awarded before 2027, at 1.9%, took nearly all of the Millennium board's day. The cheapest live rung on the page is where the money went.