AI Lab Private Valuations 2026

Neither company is public yet, but Polymarket runs strike ladders on both companies' year-end 2026 valuations, quoted off secondary-market marks. They work as a live options chain on private AI. Anthropic made its S-1 public on October 26.

Anthropic: the coin flip has moved down again, to ↑$1.75T at 49%, with ↑$1.5T at 77.85% below it and ↑$2.0T at 31% above. ↑$2.25T is 15.5% and ↑$2.5T is 10.5%, down from 23.5% on October 31. The ladder turned $40,992 in the past day, $12,802 of it on the $1.5T rung.

OpenAI: ↑$1.3T is 70.5%, ↑$1.35T 54% and ↑$1.4T 34%, so the coin flip sits just above $1.35T. ↑$1.5T is 25.5%. Its whole ladder turned $198.

Matched at the coin flip, Anthropic's mark is about 1.3 times OpenAI's: roughly $1.75T against $1.35T.

OpenAI on the left, Anthropic on the right. Each rung is the probability the company's mark touches that level before year end, not where it finishes. Anthropic's ladder traded about two hundred times OpenAI's in the past day, $40,992 to $198.

Anthropic ↑$2.5T is down to 10.5%, about one in ten, from 23.5% on October 31, and took $1,337 in the past day. OpenAI ↓$750B is back to 6%, untraded: the market gives about a one-in-seventeen chance that OpenAI's mark breaks that floor this year.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026 is quoted 87.3%, against the ladder's ↑$1.3T touch rung at 70.5%: the two books sit about seventeen points apart, which is consistent, since $1T is the lower bar. OpenAI vs Meta on December 31 prices OpenAI higher at 9%. Neither book traded in the past day.

Kalshi's Anthropic clock is back in order. Before Dec 1 is 78.5%, before Jan 1, 2027 87.5%, before Feb 1 90.5%, and before Mar 1 and before Apr 1 93.5% each, so no later deadline now sits below an earlier one. It turned $69,691 in the past day, $25,010 of it on the December 1 leg, on $2.13M of open interest.

OpenAI's clock is later: before Feb 1, 2027 9.5%, before Mar 1 22%, before Apr 1 24%, before May 1 32.5% and before Jun 1 48%, on $193.

Polymarket's IPO-valuation board turned $2,012, most of it, $1,412, on $1.5T–$1.75T at 18.75%. The leader is now <$1T at 25.55%, ahead of $1.25T–$1.5T at 19.25% and $1.75T–$2.0T at 13.5%. The month-end board covers November 30: $1.30T+ at 64.5%, $1.20–$1.30T at 22%, $1.10–$1.20T at 7.25%, and nothing below $1.1T above 3.05%, on $760.

• Anthropic near $1.75T. The coin flip has moved down another rung, to $1.75T at 49%; $2.5T is 10.5% from 23.5% on October 31. A move either way shows on the history chart above.
• OpenAI just above $1.35T. $1.35T at 54% and $1.4T at 34%, with November's mark board at 64.5% for $1.30T+; the downside floor at $750B is 6%.
• The Anthropic IPO clock. 78.5% before December 1 and 87.5% before January 1, with the public S-1 on file since October 26.
• What moves these ladders: a priced offering or funding round on either side. They track secondary marks, so the next transaction matters more than the next headline.