AI Lab Private Valuations 2026

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Neither company is public, but Polymarket runs strike ladders on both companies' year-end 2026 valuations, quoted off secondary-market marks. They work as a live options chain on private AI.

Anthropic: ↑$2.5T is the coin flip at 52.5% and the busiest rung, $5,603 of a $17,082 day. ↑$1.75T sits at 78.5% and ↑$3.0T at 22.5%.

OpenAI: the ladder has moved up. ↑$1.0T is 91% and ↑$1.25T 77%; the coin flip now sits between $1.25T and $1.5T (32%). Its whole ladder turned $1,290.

Matched on probability, Anthropic's mark is still close to twice OpenAI's, but the gap has narrowed from the two-to-one of a few weeks ago.

OpenAI on the left, Anthropic on the right. Each rung is the probability the company's mark touches that level before year end, not where it finishes. Anthropic's ladder trades about thirteen times OpenAI's today.

Anthropic ↑$2.5T at 52.5% is the busiest contract on either ladder. OpenAI ↓$750B has fallen to 9.5%: the market now gives less than a one-in-ten chance that OpenAI's mark breaks that floor this year.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026 is quoted 83% against the ladder's ↑$1.0T touch rung at 91%; the gap is the touch premium. OpenAI vs Meta on December 31 prices OpenAI higher at 11%. Neither book traded today.

Kalshi has pushed Anthropic's IPO announcement out of October. Before Nov 1 has fallen to 10.5%; before Dec 1 is 63% and before Jan 1, 2027 73.5%. The Anthropic ladder turned $14,442, and before Nov 1 holds 97,509 contracts open.

OpenAI's clock is later: before Apr 1, 2027 26.5%, before Jun 1, 2027 52%, on $285 today.

Polymarket's IPO-valuation board turned $14,389 and leads with $2.5T+ at 23.3%. Its busiest bucket was $1.25T–$1.5T at 7%, $5,118. October's month-end mark board, which replaced September's, has $1.00–$1.10T at 41.5%.

  • Anthropic at $2.5T. The coin flip and the busiest rung. A move either way shows on the history chart above.
  • OpenAI's ladder firming. $1.0T at 91% and $1.25T at 77%; the downside floor at $750B is under 10%.
  • The Anthropic IPO clock. October has gone from likely to 10.5%; December carries the weight now, 63% before Dec 1.
  • What moves these ladders: a priced funding round or a filing on either side. They track secondary marks, so the next transaction matters more than the next headline.