AI Compute Markets 2026

Kalshi's five GPU ladders have rolled to Week 41, settling Friday, October 9, and between them they have turned about $41. RTX 5090 took $22 of it; B200 has not printed. These are books people hold rather than trade.

Polymarket's October boards carry what flow there is. Its H100 end-of-October board turned $753 and puts 34.5% on $3.00 or more, 22.5% on $2.50 to $2.75 and 17.5% on $2.75 to $3.00. Its RTX 5090 board turned $467, with .60 or more at 57.55%, down from 66%.

The CME's compute futures listing on Monday, October 5 is the event that could change this arithmetic.

Kalshi's ladders on the left settle October 9; Polymarket's October boards on the right settle at month end. H100's Kalshi ladder prices Above $2.00 at 90% and Above $2.25 at 85%, in line with Polymarket's October board putting about three-quarters on $2.50 or more. RTX 5090 has slipped on both: Kalshi's Above .60 is 44.5% this week, against 84% on the last board, and Polymarket's .60 or more is 57.55% at month end.

Left is H200's Above $6.50 at 42.5%, the rung nearest even on the new Week 41 ladder; it has not traded, and 225 contracts sit open on it.

Right is the RTX 5090 board's Above .60 leg at 44.5%, the one spotlight rung with a print, $22. Neither is a market you could move size through; both are the best available read on a price nobody else publishes hourly.

Below, Kalshi's A100 weekly beside Polymarket's end-of-2026 H100 board, the longest horizon anyone lists on GPU rental prices.

A100 is priced near-certain through Above .75, at 94.5%, on three dollars of volume. The year-end H100 board turned $1,898 and spreads its weight: $2.50 to $3.00 at 20.05%, $3.00 to $3.50 at 17.15%, $2.00 to $2.50 at 15.65% and $1.50 to $2.00 at 15.05%, the last of which took $773. The near-term boards cluster around $2.50 to $3.00; the annual board is far less sure where the cycle ends.

Two Kalshi books on where the data centres actually go.

Pennsylvania's data centre count turned $586 today, $436 of it on At least 180 at 82%. The ladder steps down in order: 185 at 63.5%, 190 at 57.5%, 195 at 55.5%, 200 at 28.5%.

The moratorium count book prices At least 3 states at 74%, At least 4 at 57.5% and At least 5 at 44%, ordered, on $26.

Watch the CME listing on October 5. The question this page exists to answer is whether an exchange-traded compute future drags liquidity into the Kalshi weeklies or drains it. The five Week 41 ladders opened on $41 between them.

Watch H100 between $2.50 and $3.00. Polymarket's month-end board puts about three-quarters on $2.50 or more and splits it across three buckets, with $3.00 or more the largest at 34.5%.

Watch RTX 5090 at .60. Kalshi's weekly rung has gone from 84% to 44.5% across the roll, and Polymarket's month-end read is down to 57.55%.

And watch the year-end H100 board, the part of this page that does not depend on any single week's settlement.