AI Compute Markets 2026

The Week 39 GPU books settled and Week 40 opened, and only one of the five ladders has real flow. B200 turned $770; H100 turned $183, RTX 5090 $5, H200 $10 and A100 nothing at all. Across the five boards that is $968 of volume against 42,462 contracts of open interest—a set of books people hold rather than trade, opening thin as every week does.

H100 now prices a cliff at $3.00. Above $2.75 sits at 95% and Above $3.00 at 56%, with Above $3.75 at 19%. Last week the cliff was between $2.75 and $3.00; this week it has moved up a strike. Above $3.50 at 50% above Above $3.25 at 39% is the usual stale-print inversion on a board this thin, not a live mispricing.

The CME's Compute futures listing on October 5 is nine days out, and it is the event that could change this arithmetic.

The five Kalshi ladders below settle on October 2. B200 is the only one with a real day: Above $8.50 at 41% took $258, Above $6.00 at 95% and Above $7.50 at 80% took $200 each, which places the implied B200 rate between $8.00 and $8.50.

Polymarket's H100 board disagrees with Kalshi's by a tier. Its end-of-September index board puts 35% on $2.75 to $3.00 and only 34% on anything above $3.00, on a $1,601 day with $924 on the $3.00 to $3.25 bucket. Kalshi's weekly puts 56% above $3.00. Different indices and a two-day settlement gap explain part of it, not twenty-two points of it.

Left is H200's Above $4.50 at 67%—the rung where the H200 ladder turns from near-certain to contested, with Above $5.00 at 57% and Above $5.50 at 24% above it. The whole H200 board traded $10 today against 8,009 contracts held, so read these as quotes, not prices.

Right is the RTX 5090 board's Above .60 leg at 84%, the consumer-card counterpart to the datacentre weeklies. The ladder breaks between .60 and .65 (58%). Neither of these is a market you could move size through; both are the best available read on a price nobody else publishes hourly.

Below, Kalshi's A100 weekly sits beside Polymarket's end-of-2026 H100 board, the longest horizon anyone lists on GPU rental prices. The weekly shows what the rate is doing now; the annual shows what the market thinks the whole cycle does.

A100 opened Week 40 without a single trade. Its quotes still describe a clean cliff—Above $1.00 at 56%, Above $1.25 at 6%—but every one of its 4,886 contracts of open interest was placed in an earlier week. Last week one rung carried the whole board; this week none does. A price derived from that is a quote someone left behind, and it is why the annual board matters as a sanity check.

The regulatory layer—two Kalshi books on where the data centres actually go.

Pennsylvania's data centre count woke up. It turned $2,140 today, $1,400 of it on At least 180 at 84%, and $571 on At least 195 at 44%. The rest of the ladder—185 and 190 both at 57%, 200 at 34%, 205 at 11%—is ordered apart from one flat step, on 17,369 contracts held.

The moratorium count book has lost its settled rung. At least 2 states no longer shows as an open leg, and the ladder now starts at At least 3 (76%), then At least 4 (55%) and At least 5 (40%)—clean, with no trade today and 25,412 contracts of open interest.

Watch the CME listing on October 5. It is the first exchange-traded compute derivative outside the event contract venues, and the question this page exists to answer is whether it drags liquidity into the Kalshi weeklies or drains it. Nine days out, four of five weeklies opened Week 40 at $183 or less.

Watch the H100 gap between venues. Kalshi prices 56% above $3.00 for October 2; Polymarket's September index board prices 34% above $3.00 for September 30. One of them moves before the end of the month, and Polymarket settles first.

Watch B200. It is the one board where the money is doing work this week, with the pivot between $8.00 and $8.50.

And watch the datacentre-to-consumer spread, which is the part of this page that does not depend on any single week's settlement.