AI Compute Markets 2026

Kalshi's November monthlies settle at 11:59pm ET on November 30 on each chip's average hourly rental price for the month. None of the five traded in the last day; between them they hold about $31,000 of open interest, $11,936 of it on B200.

Polymarket's month-end boards carry what flow there is. Its H100 end-of-November board turned $356, $249 of it on $3.25 or more, which leads at 58.5%, with $2.75 to $3.00 at 18.5% and $3.00 to $3.25 at 17.85%. Its RTX 5090 board turned $862, $479 of it on .75 or more at 16.5%; the lead now sits a band lower, at .65 to .70 with 38%, ahead of .70 to .75 at 28.8%.

Kalshi's ladders on the left settle on November's average price; Polymarket's boards on the right settle on the price at month end. H100's Kalshi ladder prices Above $3.00 at 96.5% and Above $3.25 at 72.5%, while Polymarket puts 76.35% on $3.00 or more at month end, so the two venues are now about 20 points apart. The Kalshi ladder is out of order lower down: Above $2.25 at 92% sits below both Above $2.00 at 95% and Above $2.75 at 97%. RTX 5090 still shows a gap: Kalshi's Above .50 is 94% but Above .75 only 7%, while Polymarket puts 16.5% on .75 or more. Below them, H200 and B200: H200 prices Above $5.00 at 88% and Above $6.00 at 84%, and B200's Above $9.00 at 98% sits above its Above $6.00 at 94%, a stale quote rather than a read.

Left is H200's Above $6.00 at 84%, on $332 of open interest, no longer near even on its November ladder.

Right is the RTX 5090 ladder's Above .75 at 7%, on $1,096 of open interest, after a ladder that drops from 94% at .50. Neither traded in the last day, and neither is a market you could move size through; both are the best available read on a price nobody else publishes hourly.

Below, Kalshi's A100 monthly beside Polymarket's end-of-2026 H100 board, the longest horizon anyone lists on GPU rental prices.

A100 is priced at 87.5% for Above $1.00 and 25% for Above $1.50, so the market puts November's average between the two. The ladder is still out of order in between: Above $1.25 sits at 17%, below the $1.50 rung, and none of it traded in the last day. The year-end H100 board turned $181, $168 of it on $4.00 or more, and is led by $3.50 to $4.00 at 27%, then $4.00 or more at 25.8%, $3.00 to $3.50 at 22.3% and $2.50 to $3.00 at 19.65%. The November boards lean to $3.00 or more; the annual board leans higher still, with about 53% on $3.50 or more.

Two Kalshi books on where the data centers actually go.

Kalshi's count of US data centers in 2026 turned $515 on $11,590 of open interest and settles January 1 at 9:59am ET. The rungs nearest even are At least 5,200 at 51% and At least 5,300 at 55%, out of order by four points, with 5,400 at 42%, 5,500 at 34.5% and 5,600 at 24%.

The moratorium count book prices At least 4 states at 74%, At least 5 at 44%, the busiest leg at $36, and At least 6 at 10%, ordered, on $22,123 of open interest.

Watch the November settlements at 11:59pm ET on November 30. Kalshi's monthlies are open but untraded in the last day, so Polymarket's month-end boards are the GPU prices with the most prints behind them.

Watch H100 at $3.00. Kalshi's monthly prices Above $3.00 at 96.5% for November's average, while Polymarket's month-end board puts 76.35% on $3.00 or more.

Watch RTX 5090 around .65 to .70. Polymarket's board leads with that band at 38%, while Kalshi's ladder has Above .75 at only 7%.

And watch the year-end books: Polymarket's H100 board, led by $3.50 to $4.00 at 27%, and Kalshi's US data-center count, where At least 5,200 sits nearest even at 51%.