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The year-end books have closed up. Kalshi prices Claude 50.45%, Gemini 38.8%, ChatGPT 8.25%, from 54.45% and 34.45% at the last roll. Polymarket has moved further: Anthropic 48.5%, Google 43.5%, from 55.5% and 36.5%. Kalshi's book turned $134,732, and Gemini's leg took $54,961 of it, more than three times Claude's $16,494.

October has moved the other way. With the weekly books settled, the near-term read is now the month: Kalshi prices Gemini 68.5%, Claude 31.5%, and Polymarket Google 65.15%, Anthropic 31.5%, where Google was 72.55% at the last roll. Google leads the month by less and trails the year by less.

The open interest is still deep and flat: Claude 1.34M, ChatGPT 1.27M, Gemini 1.19M, Grok 1.10M. Grok holds that much paper at 3.25%.

Kalshi on the left, Polymarket on the right. Both have Anthropic ahead near 50%; Polymarket puts Google five points closer, 43.5% against Kalshi's 38.8% on Gemini. Polymarket's book turned $103,881, with Google its busiest leg at $32,357.

Claude at 50.45% on 1,341,300 of open interest, and Gemini at 38.8% on 1,188,083. Gemini took $54,961 today against Claude's $16,494. The gap between them was twenty points at the last roll and is under twelve now.

The weekly books settle today, so the near-term row now carries October. Kalshi's monthly book (Gemini 68.5%) and Polymarket's October board (Google 65.15%) agree on the leader and on Anthropic at 31.5%. Below, the model-level and coding books for the month: gemini-4-argon-high at 65% on a thin $285, while the monthly coding board has Claude at 74%.

Coding is where Anthropic's lead holds: Kalshi's year-end coding book prices Anthropic 74.5%, OpenAI 14.5%, Google 3.5%, on $3,326, with xAI's 2.5% leg the busiest at $1,374. Polymarket's Chinese board for October has Xiaomi at 40.95% ahead of Alibaba at 27% and Moonshot at 16.5%.

Does year end follow the month? October prices Gemini near two in three; year end still prices Claude, by eleven points on Kalshi and five on Polymarket. Both gaps have narrowed since the last roll.

Gemini's flow. $54,961 of Kalshi's year-end day went to Gemini and $32,357 of Polymarket's to Google.

Coding is the exception. Claude is 74% on October's coding board and Anthropic 74.5% for year-end coding.

Flat open interest. Four labs each hold more than a million on Kalshi's year-end book, at prices from 3.25% to 50.45%.

October 31: the monthly books settle.