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Google leads both year-end books by more than 35 points. Kalshi prices Gemini 63.8%, Claude 28.5%, ChatGPT 6.3%, a 35.3-point gap. Polymarket has Google 65.5%, Anthropic 29%. Kalshi's book turned $66,541 in the past day; Gemini's leg took the most, $16,315, ahead of Claude's $8,788, ChatGPT's $5,961 and Grok's $5,896.

The near-term boards lean further. Kalshi's weekly board, now the week settling November 16, has Gemini 96.5%, Claude 8% and ChatGPT 3.5%, on $11,021, though Gemini's own leg has barely traded. Polymarket's end-of-November company board has Google 74%, Anthropic 23.5%. Kalshi's November monthly model board has Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at 84.5%, gemini-4-argon-high 13% and claude-opus-5.5-high 2%.

Open interest on the year-end book stays deep and even: ChatGPT 1.56M, Claude 1.51M, Gemini 1.37M, Grok 1.32M, Kimi 0.67M. Grok holds that much paper at 1.25%.

Kalshi on the left, Polymarket on the right. Both have Google well ahead: 35.3 points on Kalshi (Gemini 63.8%, Claude 28.5%) and 36.5 on Polymarket (Google 65.5%, Anthropic 29%). Polymarket's book turned $34,407 in the past day, and its busiest leg was xAI at 0.75%, with $11,629; Google's leg took $702 and Anthropic's $692.

Claude at 28.5% on 1,505,138 of open interest, and Gemini at 63.8% on 1,367,057. Gemini took $16,315 of the past day's trade against Claude's $8,788. Gemini leads by 35.3 points.

Kalshi's weekly board has rolled to the week settling November 16 and opens with Gemini 96.5%, Claude 8% and ChatGPT 3.5%, on $11,021; most of that went to Qwen ($3,000) and Grok ($2,468), both at 1%, while Gemini's leg has traded only .50. Polymarket's end-of-November board has Google 74%, Anthropic 23.5% and OpenAI 3.05%, on $43,584, with Anthropic's leg the busiest at $7,213. Below them, Kalshi's November monthly model board, settling November 30, prices Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at 84.5%, gemini-4-argon-high 13% and claude-opus-5.5-high 2%, on $126. Kalshi's weekly coding board, also rolled to November 16, has no prices or trades yet.

Coding is where Anthropic's lead holds: Kalshi's year-end coding book prices Anthropic 80%, OpenAI 11%, Google 5.5%, xAI 2.5% and DeepSeek 2%, on $1,779. The breadth book, on which companies have a top-ranked model this year, has OpenAI at 7.5%, Meta at 7%, and Alibaba and Baidu at 3.5% each. Polymarket's end-of-November Chinese board has opened a gap at the top: Alibaba 45%, Xiaomi 36.95%, Z.ai 8.5% and Moonshot 6%, on $5,021.

Does Google hold the year? Gemini leads Kalshi's year-end book by 35.3 points and Google leads Polymarket's by 36.5.

Where the money goes. Gemini's leg took the most of Kalshi's year-end trading, $16,315, with Claude second at $8,788.

Coding is the exception. Anthropic is 80% for year-end coding; Kalshi's weekly coding board for November 16 has no prices yet.

Alibaba against Xiaomi. Alibaba now leads the November Chinese board by about 8 points, 45% to 36.95%.

November 16: Kalshi's weekly boards settle. November 30: Kalshi's November monthly model board settles, with Gemini 4 Carbon (High) at 84.5%.