2027 Oscars — Best Picture

Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards is the deepest book on this page, and it is still building about four months before the ceremony. Kalshi's Oscar winner: Best Picture Categorical turned $135,104 in the last 24 hours, from $117,220, and holds $8,083,295 of open interest, from $7,411,626.

The front-runner has pulled away. The Odyssey is 58.5% on Kalshi, from 51.5%, and 57% on Manifold, from 50%. You Can See Everything has eased to 15.5%, from 23.5%, with The Black Ball at 14.5% and Dune: Part Three at 8.5%.

Two questions are priced separately and they move on different clocks. The winner book runs to the ceremony in March 2027; the nomination books settle in January when the Academy announces the field, and they are the earlier, higher-information market. A film has to clear nomination before winner probability means anything.

Anchor: Kalshi's Oscar winner: Best Picture (99th Academy Awards). Manifold carries an independent Categorical on the same race.

Kalshi and Manifold both price the full field as a Categorical. The pies show every listed title with no count cap, so the long tail of contenders stays visible alongside the front-runners. Kalshi carries essentially all the liquidity; Manifold's book is thin but independently formed, which makes divergence between them worth reading.

The Odyssey leads the Kalshi winner book at 58.5%, from 51.5%, though its leg took only $16,347 of the day, against You Can See Everything's $54,827. The two panels below isolate it: the winner market on the left, the nomination market at 98% on the right. Their ratio is the market's implied conditional: about 59.7% to win if nominated, up from 52.6%, so nearly all of the remaining risk is head-to-head, not nomination.

Kalshi's nomination field settles on January 21, 2027, and Manifold's independent read sits beside it: The Odyssey 98% and 98.52%, The Black Ball 94% and 93%, Wild Horse Nine 90.5% and 88%, Dune: Part Three 83.5% and 82%, and You Can See Everything 82.5% and 89.37%, the one leading film where they differ by about seven points. Kalshi's book turned $5,590, from $8,463.

Below both, the Best Actor board as adjacent context: $19,932 in a day, from $10,525, with John Malkovich leading at 48%, from 42%, ahead of Andrew Scott at 17.5%, from 21.5%, and Matt Damon at 15.5%. Malkovich's leg was the busiest, on $6,084.

• The Odyssey pulling away. 58.5% on Kalshi and 57% on Manifold, up about seven points on both since the last review.
• You Can See Everything's money. It eased to 15.5% from 23.5% but took the most flow, $54,827, and its nomination price splits the venues: 82.5% on Kalshi, 89.37% on Manifold.
• Nomination first, winner second. The January nomination books resolve before the March ceremony, so they are the cleaner near-term instrument. A winner price above its own nomination price is a mispricing by construction; The Odyssey's 58.5% sits well under its 98%.
• A long shot drawing flow. Wild Horse Nine is 2.5% to win but took $19,915, and is 90.5% to be nominated.
• Kalshi-versus-Manifold spread. Kalshi holds the depth; Manifold's books barely trade, and it lists The Black Ball under its Spanish title, La Bola Negra. When the two disagree on a title by more than a few points, the thin book is usually the one that has not repriced yet.
• Best Actor's lead widens again. John Malkovich at 48%, with Andrew Scott second at 17.5%.