2027 Oscars — Best Picture

Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards is the deepest book on this page, and it is trading harder about five months before the ceremony. Kalshi's Oscar winner: Best Picture Categorical turned $107,019 in the last 24 hours, from roughly $58k, and holds $5,954,039 of open interest.

The race has a clear front-runner. The Odyssey is 49.5% on Kalshi and 50% on Manifold, with The Black Ball at 27.5% and Dune: Part Three at 9.5%.

Two questions are priced separately and they move on different clocks. The winner book runs to the ceremony in March 2027; the nomination books settle in January when the Academy announces the field, and they are the earlier, higher-information market. A film has to clear nomination before winner probability means anything.

Anchor: Kalshi's Oscar winner: Best Picture (99th Academy Awards). Manifold carries an independent Categorical on the same race.

Kalshi and Manifold both price the full field as a Categorical. The pies show every listed title with no count cap, so the long tail of contenders stays visible alongside the front-runners. Kalshi carries essentially all the liquidity; Manifold's book is thin but independently formed, which makes divergence between them worth reading.

The Odyssey leads the Kalshi winner book at 49.5% and holds the largest open interest among its top five titles, $863,972, more than twice Dune: Part Three's $391,416. The two panels below isolate it: the winner market on the left, the nomination market at 98% on the right. Their ratio is the market's implied conditional: about 50.5% to win if nominated, so nearly all of the remaining risk is head-to-head, not nomination.

Kalshi's nomination field settles in January 2027 and Manifold's independent read sits beside it, within about two points on every leading film: The Odyssey 98% and 97.55%, The Black Ball 95% and 93%, Wild Horse Nine 92% and 90.48%, Project Hail Mary 83% on both. Kalshi's book turned $8,880.

Below both, the Best Actor board as adjacent context: $20,169 in a day, with John Malkovich now leading at 40.5%, from 22.5%, ahead of Matt Damon at 23.5% and Andrew Scott at 19.5%. The busiest leg was Robert Pattinson at 3.5% on $2,718, ahead of Tom Cruise at 15.5% on $2,446.

• Volume is building. The winner book turned $107,019 today, from roughly $58k in August, on $5,954,039 of open interest.
• The Odyssey near a coin flip. 49.5% on Kalshi and 50% on Manifold; the two exchanges agree within about a point on every leading title.
• Nomination first, winner second. The January nomination books resolve before the March ceremony, so they are the cleaner near-term instrument. A winner price above its own nomination price is a mispricing by construction; The Odyssey's 49.5% sits well under its 98%.
• Cheap titles taking the flow. You Can See Everything at 3.5% took $12,938, about three times The Odyssey's $4,146.
• Kalshi-versus-Manifold spread. Kalshi holds the depth; Manifold's book barely trades. When the two disagree on a title by more than a few points, the thin book is usually the one that has not repriced yet.
• Best Actor has a new leader. John Malkovich at 40.5%, from 22.5%, ahead of Matt Damon at 23.5%.