2027 College Basketball Champion

Kalshi's men's title book for the 2026-27 season still has two teams it can barely separate. Florida is 13.5% and Duke 12.5%; a point now splits a pair that were level near 12.5% in September. Behind them the field is flat: UConn 6.25%, Illinois 5.8%, Texas 4.3%. The book turned $47,721 today on $8.13M of open interest, and the busiest of the leaders was UConn, $3,549.

A single-elimination tournament keeps a title book flat until the bracket is drawn, and the season does not tip off until November. This page pairs the men's and women's title books, spotlights the two favorites, and lays out the conference races that decide seeding.

Both national championship books as full-field pies. The men's side carries essentially all the volume, $47,721 in 24 hours against $175 on the women's, but the women's book is far more concentrated: South Carolina at 27%, UConn 22.5%, USC 20.5%, then Texas at 7%. Two sports, two different shapes of uncertainty.

The two teams at the top of the men's book. Florida at 13.5% holds 246,212 of open interest and traded $159 today; Duke at 12.5% holds 279,061 and traded $2,099. They printed the same price in September. The gap that has opened since is a single point, and the larger position is still on Duke.

Regular-season conference races are the seeding mechanism: win the league and a protected seed usually follows. These books are open and all but untraded, $32 across the four today, so read the prices accordingly. The Big East has UConn at 46.5% and the Big Ten has Illinois at 27.5%; the Big 12 is a three-way between Texas Tech (21.5%), Arizona (20%) and Houston (19.5%). The SEC book shows Georgia at 95% and Missouri at 94% on almost no open interest, which are stale quotes rather than prices. Below them, the ACC tournament book has Duke at 42.5%.

Price history on the top of the men's title book. The leaders have moved by about a point since early September, and the line should stay close to flat until games are played: the interesting movement starts with November's tip-off and compounds through conference play.

• Whether Florida and Duke separate. 13.5% against 12.5%. The first real gap is likely to open in November, once games are played.
• The tail. UConn 6.25%, Illinois 5.8%, Texas 4.3%, then a long flat run. In a single-elimination tournament that tail is the point of the book.
• Conference books versus the title book. The conference races are effectively unpriced, and the SEC's top quotes are stale. Florida is 42% for the SEC regular season and Duke 42.5% for the ACC tournament; if a title favorite is not also favored in its own league, one of the two numbers is wrong.
• The women's concentration. South Carolina, UConn and USC hold 70% of the women's book between them, close to the opposite shape of the men's field.
• Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027, is the repricing event; the bracket moves this book more than any single regular-season result.
• Settlement. The men's championship game settles April 13, 2027; the women's April 18.