2027 College Basketball Champion

Duke still holds the top of Kalshi's men's title book, but the lead has narrowed. Duke is 13.5% and Florida 12.5%, a one-point gap, down from three. Behind them the field has tightened: UConn 9.75%, Illinois 8.25%, Michigan St. 8.1%. The book turned $935,910 in a day, nearly double its early-November pace, and the busiest of the leaders was Michigan St., at $80,204.

A single-elimination tournament keeps a title book flat until the bracket is drawn, and the season is in its opening weeks. This page pairs the men's and women's title books, spotlights the two favorites, and lays out the conference races that decide seeding.

Both national championship books as full-field pies. The men's side carries almost all the volume, $935,910 in 24 hours against $4,780 on the women's, but the women's book is far more concentrated: South Carolina at 30%, USC 27.5%, UConn 22.5%, then Oregon at 18%. Two sports, two different shapes of uncertainty.

The two teams at the top of the men's book. Florida at 12.5% holds $362,236 of open interest and traded $2,380 in the last day; Duke at 13.5% holds $526,511 and traded $23,502. Duke led by three in early November and now leads by one, though it still has the larger position and far more of the day's money behind it. UConn, third at 9.75%, holds more open interest than either, $611,226.

Regular-season conference races are the seeding mechanism: win the league and a protected seed usually follows. These books are open and thinly traded, about $4,300 across the five in the last day, so read the prices accordingly. The SEC has Florida at 46% and Alabama at 13%; the Big Ten Illinois at 36% and Michigan St. at 20.5%; the Big 12 is the tightest, Arizona at 24.5%, Kansas 23% and Houston 22%. The Big East shows UConn at 46.5% and St. John's at 24.5%. Below them, the ACC tournament book has Duke at 44.5% and Virginia at 16%.

Price history on the top of the men's title book. Duke and Florida have traded places within a three-point band since early September and now sit a point apart, while UConn, Illinois and Michigan St. have each climbed above 8%. The movement that matters builds through conference play and compounds into March.

• Whether Duke holds the lead. 13.5% against Florida's 12.5%, a gap that has narrowed from three points to one.
• The chasers. UConn 9.75%, Illinois 8.25%, Michigan St. 8.1%, all closer to the top than in early November. In a single-elimination tournament that tail is the point of the book.
• Conference books versus the title book. Florida is 46% for the SEC regular season and Duke 44.5% for the ACC tournament, both consistent with their places at the top of the title book; UConn at 46.5% in the Big East matches its rise to third.
• The women's concentration. South Carolina, USC and UConn hold 80% of the women's book between them, close to the opposite shape of the men's field.
• Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027, is the repricing event; the bracket moves this book more than any single regular-season result.
• Settlement. The men's book settles April 13, 2027; the women's April 18.