2026 Florida Governor Race

The primary is over. Byron Donalds won it on August 25 and the page has turned to the November general—Donalds 82.5%, David Jolly 18.5%, on a Kalshi book that sums to 101%.

The primary left something behind that is hard to look away from. Three settled Florida primary books still carry $5,955,227 of open interest between them, and every rung on all three is marked at exactly 50.0%.

• Fishback's vote-share ladder: $5,096,186, including $1,609,340 on At least 30%. It turned $33,298 in the last 24 hours, on a race already counted.
• The second-place book: $563,621, and Donalds' own vote-share ladder: $295,420, which turned $4,070 more.

None of it has a live quote; the 50% marks are what shows when a book stops being quoted, not a view.

Anchor: Kalshi—Florida Governor winner? · general election November 3.

The general on both exchanges. Kalshi turns $4,619 against $257,501 of standing open interest, and Polymarket prices the same race a couple of points apart—Jolly 20.5% against Kalshi's 18.5%, Donalds 79.5% against 82.5%.

Jolly slipped three points overnight while his open interest grew from $134,837 to $157,842. The price went down and the position got bigger.

Donalds: 82.5%, $3,409 traded, $99,659 held. Jolly: 18.5%, $1,210 traded, $157,842 held.

Jolly holds 58% more open interest than the favourite while priced at under a fourth—but the flow flipped today: Donalds outtraded him nearly three to one, after weeks of the reverse.

Hedging, belief the race narrows, or a cheap contract simply being easier to hold—the page does not resolve between them.

The three settled books above are the artifact; the boards below are what is still live.

Kalshi's Florida governor margin ladders, Republican and Democratic sides both, are listed and completely untraded—zero volume on either. Polymarket's Categorical margin board is the same: listed, fully quoted, zero volume. For a race the winner books price at better than four to one, nobody at all is pricing the size of the win.

Polymarket's closest-governor's-race board is the useful cross-check. Where Florida sits on it says more about how competitive this race actually is than the 82.5% headline does.

The Senate race prices Ashley Moody at 92.65% against Angie Nixon at 8.75%—a book summing to 101.4%—and Nixon's leg took $8,558 to Moody's $8,285 while holding $176,078 of open interest against Moody's $109,071.

That is the governor's-race shape at a wider price gap: 61% more money standing behind a one-in-eleven outcome. Across two independent Florida statewide books, the money is consistently on the Democrat and the price consistently is not.

• $5,955,227 on three settled books, all marked 50%. Fishback's ladder alone holds $5.1M and traded $33,298 yesterday, after the votes were counted. Certification releases it; until then it is the largest frozen position in this catalog.
• Jolly's price fell and his position grew. 21.5% to 18.5% overnight, $134,837 to $157,842 of open interest. Whatever is buying is not buying on price.
• The flow flipped on the governor's race. Donalds outtraded Jolly three to one today after weeks of the reverse. One session is not a trend, but it is the first one.
• The same inversion in the Senate race, wider. Nixon at 8.75% holds 61% more open interest than Moody at 92.65%. Two independent statewide books, one shape.
• Nobody is pricing the margin. Both Kalshi margin ladders and Polymarket's margin board sit at zero volume on a race the winner books call better than four to one.