2026 Florida Governor Race

The page is the November general. Byron Donalds is 76.5% and David Jolly 23.5% on Kalshi; Polymarket has it 77.5 to 22.5. In mid-September Kalshi read 82.5 to 18.5, so the Democrat has gained five points without the race becoming close.

The flow is on the underdog. Kalshi's book turned $5,714 today, and $3,852 of it traded on Jolly. The standing position runs the other way now: Donalds' leg holds $1,361,510 of open interest to Jolly's $530,773, on a book that has grown to $1.89M.

The margin boards have started to trade. Kalshi's Republican-side ladder, untraded in September, prices Donalds, 3+ pts at 58% and 6+ pts at 38.5%: a central estimate of about a four-point Republican win, narrower than the 76.5% headline suggests.

Anchor: Kalshi—Florida Governor winner? · general election November 3.

The general on both exchanges. Kalshi turns $5,714 against $1,892,263 of standing open interest, and Polymarket prices the same race a point apart: Jolly 22.5% against Kalshi's 23.5%, Donalds 77.5% against 76.5%. Polymarket's book turned $503.

Both venues have moved the same way since mid-September, when Jolly was 18.5% on Kalshi and 20.5% on Polymarket.

Donalds: 76.5%, $1,862 traded, $1,361,510 held. Jolly: 23.5%, $3,852 traded, $530,773 held.

The favorite holds two and a half times the underdog's open interest, the reverse of September, when Jolly's leg was the larger. Today's flow went the other way: Jolly outtraded Donalds two to one.

Hedging, belief the race narrows, or a cheap contract simply being easier to trade: the page does not resolve between them.

How big the win is, on both exchanges.

Kalshi's Republican-side margin ladder prices Donalds, 3+ pts at 58%, 6+ pts at 38.5%, 9+ pts at 23.5% and 12+ pts at 10.5%, on $344 today. In September it had not traded at all.

Polymarket's Categorical margin board spreads the same question across buckets with no favorite: Donalds 3–6% at 21%, 6–9% at 18.5%, 0–3% at 18%, and Jolly 0–3% at 13%, on $108. Both boards put the likeliest outcome at a mid-single-digit Republican win.

Polymarket's closest-governor's-race board, which used to sit here, is no longer listed and has come off the page.

The Senate race prices Ashley Moody at 89% against Angie Nixon at 12%, a book summing to 101%, and Nixon's leg took $30,509 of the day's $39,667 while holding $608,965 of open interest against Moody's $290,289.

That is the governor's-race flow at a wider price gap: more than twice the money standing behind a one-in-eight outcome. Nixon has gained three points since mid-September, as Jolly has gained five.

• Jolly at 23.5%. Up five points in three weeks on Kalshi, with Polymarket a point behind at 22.5%. Another move of that size would make this a race.
• The flow is on the Democrats, on both statewide books. Jolly took two thirds of the governor book's day; Nixon took three quarters of the Senate book's.
• The open interest has turned over. Donalds now holds $1.36M to Jolly's $530,773; in September the underdog held more.
• The margin ladder's 6-point rung. Donalds, 6+ pts at 38.5% is the nearest thing to a live question on the page.
• Florida visitors. Kalshi's 2026 board prices Above 142 million at 47.5%, and its busiest rung is Above 144 million at 14%, $5,342 of a $6,445 day.