Federal legislation trackers 2026

For most of the summer this page tracked elapsed deadlines that Kalshi's legislative books still quoted at 50%. Those rungs are gone, and so is Kalshi's board on a Senate vote on the SAVE America Act before Election Day, which has closed. Every ladder here shows only live gates, and the question is the one the books were built for: what becomes law, and when.

The SAVE America Act is now the busiest book, $4,566 on the day, $3,907 of it on Before Jan 1, 2027 at 1.85%; Before Jan 1, 2028 is 8%.

The Clarity Act turned $1,408, $953 of it on Before Jan 1, 2027 at 2.45%; the ladder runs into 2027 and 2028, reaching 20.5% by January 1, 2028.

FISA is still the bill the market expects to move soonest: reauthorization before January 1, 2027 is 39.5% and before April 1, 2027 42%, the gate nearest even. The bills board's separate leg on a two-year Section 702 reauthorization is 6.4%. All three bills' year-end gates are lower than on November 3.

The SAVE America Act ladder below: Before Dec 1 2%, Before Jan 1, 2027 1.85%, Before Jul 1, 2027 3.5% and Before Jan 1, 2028 8%, on $4,566, $3,907 of it on the January 2027 rung, which holds most of the open interest, 324,388. The December 1 rung is quoted a shade above the January 1 rung, which cannot both hold; both are close to zero.

Kalshi's separate board on when the Senate would vote on the bill has closed and is no longer on the page. In early September the market gave a floor vote about one chance in four this year. The law ladder has faded with it: about one chance in fifty this year, and one in twelve by January 2028.

Left, the SAVE America Act becoming law before January 1, 2027: 1.85%, which took $3,907. Right, the Clarity Act's furthest gate, before January 1, 2028: 20.5%, on $216. One prices this Congress's remaining weeks; the other prices the next fourteen months.

Which bills will become law in 2026 (left) is led by Export-control chip security at 37%. Behind it, Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 23%, Data center utility cost protection 17.5%, AI-chip export licensing 16.5% and E15 year-round sales 15.5%, on a $197 day, $78 of it on the data center leg. The Protect College Sports Act and the Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act, 21.5% and 13% on November 3, are no longer among the leaders.

FISA reauthorization (right): Before Dec 1 is 6%, Before Jan 1, 2027 39.5% and Before Apr 1, 2027 42%, on $8.

Below, the Clarity Act's full ladder, the second-busiest legislative book on the page after the SAVE America Act.

The Which bills become law in 2026 board carries a leg for a two-year FISA Section 702 reauthorization, at 6.4%. The dedicated FISA timing ladder prices reauthorization before January 1, 2027 at 39.5%.

The two are not the same question. The ladder asks when FISA is next reauthorized; the bills-board leg needs a specific two-year bill to become law this year. Read together, they say the market gives an extension of some kind a little better than one chance in three by year end and doubts it will be the two-year version. Both books are thin, $8 on the ladder and nothing on the bills-board leg, so treat the gap as a quote rather than a conviction. The two contracts below are the pair.

The SAVE America Act carries the page's volume. Its January 1, 2027 gate is 1.85% on $3,907 of trade; Kalshi's Senate-vote board on the bill has closed.

Clarity before January 1, 2027 at 2.45%, on $953. The ladder's 2027 gates rise to 15.5% by October 2027 and 20.5% by January 2028.

FISA at 39.5% by year end and 42% by April 1, 2027, the gates nearest even on the page.

The lame-duck session. The weeks after the November 3 election are where any of these bills would move; the shutdown workspace tracks the funding deadline. The countdown above runs to the January 1, 2027 gate, when the year-end rungs settle.