Federal legislation trackers 2026

For most of the summer this page tracked elapsed deadlines that Kalshi's legislative books still quoted at 50%. Those rungs are gone. Every ladder here now shows only live gates, and the question is the one the books were built for: what becomes law, and when.

The Clarity Act is the busiest book, $30,599 today. Before Jan 1, 2027 prices 7.5% and took $25,766 of it; the ladder now runs into 2027 and 2028, reaching 27% by January 1, 2028.

The SAVE America Act prices 4.6% to become law before January 1, 2027, on $13,953, and a Senate vote before Election Day is 6.5%.

FISA is the one bill the market expects to move: reauthorization before January 1, 2027 is 55.5%. The bills board's separate leg on a two-year Section 702 reauthorization is 8.55%; the gap says the market expects an extension of some other length.

The SAVE America Act (left): Before Nov 1 1.5%, Before Dec 1 4%, Before Jan 1, 2027 4.6%, on $13,953 today, nearly all of it on the January rung.

The Senate vote on the same bill (right) is down to one live rung: 6.5% before November 3, on $3. Three weeks ago the market gave a floor vote about one chance in four this year and passage one in fifteen. Both have faded: a vote before the election is now about one in fifteen, and a law this year one in twenty.

Left, the SAVE America Act becoming law before January 1, 2027: 4.6%, which took $12,533 today. Right, the Clarity Act's furthest gate, before January 1, 2028: 27%. One prices this Congress's remaining weeks; the other prices the next fifteen months.

Which bills will become law in 2026 (left): the Protect College Sports Act leads at 44.5% and took $1,081 of the board's $2,018 day. Behind it, Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 37%, ADS-B revenue-use restriction 26.5%, Export-control chip security 24.5% and AI-chip export licensing 24%. Three weeks ago the buyback leg was 75%.

FISA reauthorization (right): the dated rungs have settled and one live gate remains, Before Jan 1, 2027 at 55.5%, on $35.

Below, the Clarity Act's full ladder, the busiest legislative book on the page.

The Which bills become law in 2026 board carries a leg for a two-year FISA Section 702 reauthorization, at 8.55%. The dedicated FISA timing ladder prices reauthorization before January 1, 2027 at 55.5%.

The two are not the same question. The ladder asks when FISA is next reauthorized; the bills-board leg needs a specific two-year bill to become law this year. Read together, they say the market expects FISA to be extended and doubts it will be the two-year version. Both books are thin, $35 on the ladder today, so treat the gap as a quote rather than a conviction. The two contracts below are the pair.

The frozen gates are gone. The 50% marks on elapsed deadlines that this page tracked through the summer have settled off the ladders, and the distributions can be read as prices again.

Clarity before January 1, 2027 at 7.5%. It took $25,766 today, the most of any contract here. The ladder's 2027 gates rise slowly, to 18.5% by October 2027.

FISA at 55.5% by year end is the only bill on the page priced better than even.

The lame-duck session. With a stopgap running to December 11, the weeks after the election are where any of these bills would move; the shutdown workspace tracks that deadline.