Federal legislation trackers 2026

Kalshi's Will the Clarity Act become law? ladder has three deadlines that have already passed and are still being marked. Before Jul 1, 2026 holds $153,843. Before Aug 1 holds $697,061. Before Sep 1 holds $1,160,717. All three are quoted 50.0%, none has traded a dollar today, and together they carry $2,011,621—the second-largest block of frozen open interest in the catalog, behind only the Strait of Hormuz timing ladder's $5.3M.

The live rungs price sensibly. Before Oct 1 is 3.5% on $60,798 of volume, Before Nov 1 is 6.0%, Before Dec 1 11%, and Before Jan 1, 2027 18% on $469,577 open. That is a clean, monotone timing ladder—sitting directly above three settled rungs marked at a coin flip.

The elapsed gates aren't inert. Before Sep 1 alone holds more open interest than every live rung on the ladder combined except the January contract. Until Kalshi settles them, the event's headline distribution is arithmetically meaningless: the pie includes $2M of paper on outcomes that already resolved.

FISA is still priced two incompatible ways. The Which bills will become law in 2026? board carries a FISA Section 702 reauthorization leg; the dedicated When will FISA be reauthorized again? ladder prices the same question on its own timeline. The two have not reconciled across any refresh of this workspace.

The SAVE America Act remains the other anchor—a vote question and a becomes-law question that disagree by more than the legislative process can account for.

The SAVE America Act (left): live rungs read Before Oct 1 1.5%, Before Nov 1 3.5%, Before Dec 1 3.5%, Before Jan 1, 2027 6.8% with $411,870 open. Three elapsed rungs above them read 50.0%.

The Senate vote on the same bill (right) has only three rungs and one of them is frozen: Before Aug 8 at 50.0% with $13,963, against live quotes of 21% by October 1 and 26% by Election Day. So the market thinks a floor vote is roughly one-in-four this year and passage into law roughly one-in-fifteen—a coherent pair, sitting next to a dead rung that says the vote already happened.

Before Sep 1, 2026—elapsed—holds $1,160,717 at 50.0% with no volume. The spotlight beside it is the first live gate, Before Oct 1 at 3.5%, which took $60,798 today. Same ladder, four weeks apart, one of them a real price.

Which bills will become law in 2026 (left): 31 legs summing to 470%, with Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions at 75%, College sports federalization at 41.5% taking $718 of the board's $965 day, Export-control chip security 30.5%, AI-chip export licensing 26.5%—and Housing for the 21st Century Act frozen at 50.0% on $88,342.

FISA reauthorization (right): seven rungs, five of them frozen at 50.0%. The two live ones say Before Oct 1 8.5% and Before Jan 1, 2027 54%. So the market's actual view is that FISA gets reauthorized late in the year, and five contracts sitting above that view claim it already happened.

Below, the Clarity Act's full ladder, the busiest legislative book on the exchange.

The Which bills become law in 2026 board carries a FISA leg. The dedicated FISA timing ladder carries an October 1 rung. They are asking overlapping questions and answering differently—the timing ladder's Before Oct 1 sits at 8.5%, while the same exchange's year-long FISA line runs materially higher, and the timing ladder's own year-end rung is at 54%.

Both are quoted, neither is frozen, and there is no obvious reason a bill 54% likely to be reauthorized by January should be at 8.5% by October and something else again on the omnibus board. The two contracts below are the pair; watch them against each other rather than in isolation.

Three settled gates, $2,011,621, all at 50.0%. This is the largest frozen position in the catalog and it has now survived multiple refreshes. It is worth being precise about what it means: the midpoints are a rendering default on books with no bid and no ask, not a market view. Any read of the Clarity Act's implied timeline must exclude them.

The live ladder is coherent. 3.5% by October, 6% by November, 11% by December, 18% by January. Monotone, well-spaced, and $60,798 of real flow on the front rung. Crypto market structure legislation is priced as unlikely this year and roughly one-in-five by the new year.

FISA's two books still don't reconcile. The bills-board leg and the dedicated reauthorization ladder price the same statutory question differently. Watch whether one converges to the other.

Nothing here settles before October 1, so the next real information is the appropriations calendar—which is tracked in the government shutdown workspace rather than this one.