2026 F1 Drivers' Champion

The 2026 drivers' title is priced as all but settled. Kimi Antonelli is 96.5% on Polymarket and 95.5% on Kalshi, up from 91.5% on both at the last review, and 90% on Manifold's play-money book.

George Russell is no longer the one other price. His Polymarket leg has fallen from 5.75% to 1.45% and his Kalshi leg from 5.5% to 1.5%, level with Lewis Hamilton there and behind Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc at 2% each.

The trade is in the tail. Verstappen's 0.55% Polymarket leg took $20,289, more than Antonelli's $18,805, and his Kalshi leg took $18,735 against the leader's $17,581. Polymarket turned $78,177 and Kalshi $46,383, several times the volume of the last review.

The constructors' title is priced as done: Mercedes 98.6% on Polymarket and 97.5% on Kalshi.

The drivers' championship on both real-money venues. They agree to within a point at the top, Antonelli 96.5% and 95.5%, and differ on who is next: Russell at 1.45% on Polymarket, Verstappen and Leclerc at 2% on Kalshi. Polymarket turned $78,177 and Kalshi $46,383.

The leader's leg on each venue: 96.5% against 95.5%. Between them the two contracts took $36,386 in a day, $18,805 on Polymarket and $17,581 on Kalshi.

Oscar Piastri's Polymarket leg has closed, so this row now carries the two names the page has followed longest behind the leader. Russell on Polymarket is 1.45% on $8,587, down from 5.75%. Hamilton on Kalshi is 1.5% on $5,954, with 685,785 of open interest still on a leg that was 13% in September.

The constructors' championship. Mercedes is 98.6% on Polymarket and 97.5% on Kalshi, from 97.9% and 96.5%. Polymarket's book turned $24,411, nearly all of it, $23,391, on Mercedes; Kalshi's turned $8,195. Ferrari is 0.85% and 1.5%.

Manifold's independent read: Antonelli 89.99%, about six points under both real-money venues, with Russell at 3.2%, Verstappen at 2.3% and Norris at 2.2%. Beside it, Hamilton's Polymarket leg at 0.75%, which took $1,190.

• The last few points. Antonelli is 96.5% and 95.5%; what is left is split across four or five names, none above 2%.
• Verstappen's legs are the busiest. $20,289 on Polymarket at 0.55% and $18,735 on Kalshi at 2%, each more than the leader's leg took.
• Kalshi's tail is priced higher than Polymarket's. Verstappen 2% against 0.55%, Hamilton 1.5% against 0.75%, Russell 1.5% against 1.45%: small quotes on thin legs more than a view.
• Manifold is six points lower on Antonelli, 89.99%, and spreads the remainder across Russell, Verstappen and Norris.
• Mercedes at 98.6%. The constructors' favorite took $23,391 of that book's $24,411 on Polymarket.
• Settlement: Kalshi's drivers' book settles December 8.