120th Congress Leadership

Shared workspace on Qwidgets tracking prediction markets with data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more. Live prices, candlestick charts, order books, and historical analytics for every event and market on this page.

Markets in this workspace

Kalshi prices Chuck Schumer at 85.5% to be Senate Majority Leader in the 120th Congress, with Chris Van Hollen at 10.5% and Brian Schatz and Elissa Slotkin at 2.5% each. The book turned $602,131 in a day on $1,050,582 of open interest: $314,479 on Schumer, $144,759 on Slotkin and $101,159 on Van Hollen.

The House side is close to settled. Hakeem Jeffries is 96.5% to be elected Speaker and 93.5% to win on the first ballot.

The Senate book settles when the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, the moment the countdown tracks.

Manifold's mirror of the same question agrees: Chuck Schumer 86.44%, Chris Van Hollen 11% and Brian Schatz 2.06%. Below, Schumer's line on both exchanges, then Van Hollen beside Polymarket's Senate minority leader book, where John Thune is 99.35%.

Jeffries' first ballot. Kalshi's first-ballot market is 93.5% on $87,760 in a day. The defection ladder prices at least 1 Democrat withholding at 89%, at least 5 at 63.5% and at least 8 at 36.5%. On the vote-count ladder, at least 252 is 57%, the strike nearest even.

  • The Senate Democratic leadership vote. Schumer is 85.5% and Van Hollen 10.5%; Slotkin's leg drew $144,759 in a day at 2.5%.
  • The first Speaker ballot on January 3. Jeffries is 93.5% to win it, and at least 5 Democratic defections is 63.5%.
  • Jeffries' vote total. At least 246 is 78% and at least 252 57%.